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from a market letter I have received
Friday was mostly weak.Both the NYSE and OTC AD lines were
weak.New highs decreased on both the NYSE and OTC on an up day.New lows
decreased on both the NYSE and OTC.The secondaries were weaker than the blue
chips.On the positive side, growth outperformed value.
It was disappointing to see the NASDAQ new high indicator
continue to fall and that suggests caution.Seasonally the last Monday in
August has not been good, nor has the last Thursday.The last Tuesday,
Wednesday and Friday of August have been pretty strong andthat is consistent
with a pre-Labor day pattern.Seasonality clearly favors the small caps, but,
everything is oversold now so itis possible that we could see a broad based
rally next week.
I will be taking long positions in all of the accounts as of
Monday's close.The sector account will be split between basic materials (BI)
and electronics(SI),both have been performing well recently with
seasonality.
The tables below show that for the past decade the small caps were up a
high percentage of the last days in August and first days in September
The averages are negatively skewed from large losses in 1998.
Last 5 days of August and first 5 days of September.The
counts are out from Day1, the two Day1's represent the last and first trading
day of the month.
S&P-500
Composite
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;1 =
Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
Day5 Day4
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Day4 Day5
Totals 1989-1 -0.28% 5 0.45%
1 -0.64% 2 0.23% 3 0.23% 4 0.65%
5 -0.33% 2 -0.94% 3 -0.25% 4 0.12%
5 -0.78% 1990-2
3.19% 1 -0.03% 2 0.89% 3 -1.69% 4 1.21%
5 0.16% 2 0.40% 3 -1.21% 4 0.92%
5 -0.55% 1
3.29% 1991-3 -0.08% 1 -0.20%
2 0.91% 3 -0.04% 4 -0.26% 5 -0.83% 2 -0.56%
3 -0.21% 4 -0.01% 5 -0.14% 1
-1.42% 1992-4 0.22% 2
0.46% 3 0.00% 4 0.32% 5 -0.20% 1 0.49%
2 0.46% 3 0.00% 4 -0.22% 5 -0.63%
2
0.91% 1993-1 0.08% 3
0.20% 4 -0.11% 5 0.30% 1 0.36% 2 -0.09%
3 -0.40% 4 0.01% 5 -0.61% 2 -0.41%
3 -0.68% 1994-2 -0.20%
4 1.22% 5 0.17% 1 0.31% 2 -0.12%
3 -0.49% 4 -0.46% 5 0.18% 2 -0.19% 3
0.46% 4
0.88% 1995-3 0.47% 5 -0.19%
1 0.17% 2 0.16% 3 0.17% 4 0.35%
5 0.95% 2 0.18% 3 0.02% 4 0.42%
5 2.70% 1996-4
-0.47% 1 0.38% 2 -0.24% 3 -1.11% 4 -0.82%
5 0.42% 2 0.14% 3 -0.94% 4 0.96%
5 1.23% 1
-0.46% 1997-1 -0.37% 1 -0.78%
2 0.07% 3 -1.10% 4 -0.46% 5 3.13%
2 0.03% 3 0.32% 4 -0.20% 5 0.23%
1
0.89% 1998-2 0.43% 2 -0.79%
3 -3.84% 4 -1.48% 5 -6.80% 1 3.86% 2 -0.38%
3 -0.83% 4 -0.85% 5 5.09% 2
-5.59% 1999-3 1.34% 3 -1.43%
4 -1.01% 5 -1.80% 1 -0.27% 2 0.81% 3 -0.90%
4 2.89% 5 -0.50% 2 -0.47% 3
-1.34% 2000-4 -0.12% 5 0.51%
1 -0.28% 2 -0.48% 3 1.00% 4 0.20% 5
-0.90% 2 -0.98% 3 0.69% 4 -0.53% 5
-0.90%
Averages 0.35%
-0.02% -0.32% -0.53%
-0.50% 0.72% -0.16%
-0.14% -0.02%
0.40% -0.21%%
Winners
50% 50%
50% 42%
42% 75%
42% 45%
33% 50%
NASDAQ
Composite
Day5 Day4
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Day4 Day5
Totals 1989-1 0.19% 5
0.09% 1 -0.13% 2 0.36% 3 0.21% 4 0.43%
5 0.03% 2 -0.45% 3 0.09% 4 0.34%
5
1.16% 1990-2 3.79% 1
0.42% 2 -0.28% 3 -0.81% 4 0.67% 5 0.12%
2 0.20% 3 -0.96% 4 0.42% 5 0.35%
1
3.93% 1991-3 0.06% 1
0.07% 2 0.87% 3 0.02% 4 -0.13% 5 -0.91%
2 -0.57% 3 -0.19% 4 0.00% 5 0.22%
1 -0.57% 1992-4 -0.21%
2 0.83% 3 0.80% 4 0.05% 5 -0.08%
1 0.44% 2 1.00% 3 0.64% 4 -0.25%
5 -0.40% 2
2.82% 1993-1 -0.20% 3 -0.31%
4 0.37% 5 0.45% 1 0.74% 2 0.45%
3 0.34% 4 0.14% 5 -1.38% 2 -1.17%
3 -0.58% 1994-2
0.41% 4 1.08% 5 0.04% 1 0.43% 2 -0.11%
3 -0.87% 4 0.04% 5 0.03% 2 0.63%
3 0.66% 4
2.33% 1995-3 -0.09% 5 -1.16%
1 -0.45% 2 0.89% 3 0.74% 4 -0.06%
5 1.95% 2 0.48% 3 0.65% 4 0.85%
5 3.80% 1996-4
-0.34% 1 0.86% 2 0.42% 3 -0.77% 4 -0.31%
5 0.07% 2 0.13% 3 -1.59% 4 1.22%
5 0.82% 1
0.53% 1997-1 0.18% 1 -0.64%
2 0.27% 3 -0.89% 4 0.38% 5 1.94%
2 0.01% 3 0.39% 4 0.69% 5 0.59%
1
2.91% 1998-2 0.41% 2 -1.67%
3 -4.62% 4 -2.77% 5 -8.56% 1 5.06% 2
1.13% 3 -1.32% 4 -0.34% 5 6.02% 2
-6.67% 1999-3 1.93% 3 -1.10%
4 -0.57% 5 -1.67% 1 0.98% 2 0.42% 3
-0.60% 4 3.98% 5 -0.21% 2 -1.01%
3 2.16% 2000-4
-0.26% 5 0.69% 1 0.28% 2 0.53% 3
2.50% 4 0.67% 5 -2.15% 2 -3.13% 3 2.12%
4 -2.93% 5 -1.69%
Averages 0.49%
-0.07% -0.25% -0.35%
-0.25% 0.65%
0.12% -0.16%
0.30% 0.36%
0.84%% Winners
58% 58%
58% 58%
58% 75%
75% 50%
67% 67%
Russell
2000
Day5 Day4
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Day4 Day5
Totals 1989-1 0.05% 5 -0.01%
1 -0.13% 2 0.33% 3 0.43% 4 0.29%
5 0.06% 2 -0.39% 3 0.17% 4 0.41%
5
1.21% 1990-2 3.31% 1
0.65% 2 0.34% 3 -0.53% 4 0.14% 5 -0.29%
2 0.65% 3 -0.49% 4 0.55% 5 0.16%
1
4.51% 1991-3 0.21% 1
0.09% 2 0.83% 3 0.19% 4 0.31% 5 -0.63%
2 -0.36% 3 0.01% 4 0.06% 5 0.01%
1 0.72% 1992-4
-0.45% 2 0.35% 3 0.57% 4 0.24% 5
-0.02% 1 0.23% 2 0.78% 3 0.40% 4
-0.08% 5 -0.59% 2
1.44% 1993-1 0.09% 3 -0.23%
4 0.11% 5 0.31% 1 0.56% 2 0.37%
3 0.39% 4 0.24% 5 -1.03% 2 -1.27%
3 -0.46% 1994-2
0.20% 4 0.56% 5 0.22% 1 0.38% 2
0.46% 3 -0.49% 4 0.05% 5 -0.15% 2 0.39%
3 0.53% 4
2.16% 1995-3 0.21% 5 -0.34%
1 -0.60% 2 0.58% 3 0.68% 4 0.28%
5 0.70% 2 0.73% 3 0.51% 4 0.73%
5 3.48% 1996-4
-0.08% 1 0.67% 2 0.56% 3 -0.33% 4 -0.19%
5 -0.15% 2 0.35% 3 -0.89% 4 0.76%
5 0.46% 1
1.17% 1997-1 0.57% 1
0.05% 2 0.60% 3 0.18% 4 0.44% 5
1.09% 2 0.17% 3 0.21% 4 0.77% 5
0.68% 1
4.77% 1998-2 -1.00% 2 -2.40%
3 -3.76% 4 -2.07% 5 -5.74% 1 3.00% 2
1.31% 3 -1.80% 4 0.23% 5 4.28% 2
-7.96% 1999-3 0.17% 3 -0.42%
4 -0.82% 5 -1.18% 1 0.11% 2 0.74% 3
-0.83% 4 2.00% 5 0.52% 2 -0.53%
3 -0.24% 2000-4
0.35% 5 0.26% 1 0.60% 2 0.52% 3
1.03% 4 0.75% 5 -0.53% 2 -0.50% 3 1.21%
4 -1.31% 5 2.37%
Averages 0.30%
-0.06% -0.12% -0.11%
-0.15% 0.43%
0.23% -0.05%
0.34% 0.30%
1.10%% Winners
75% 58%
67% 67%
75% 67%
75% 50%
83% 67%
The days before labor day can come in August or September.This year
they all fall in August.These tables show that the Monday's and Thursday's
before Labor day have been weak whileTuesday's, Wednesday's and Friday's
have been strong. Again the bias has favored the small caps.
5 days before Labor Day
Day 1 is the last trading day before Labor day, Day2 the second to the last
etc.The number following the % change represents the day of the week
1=Monday, 5=Friday etc.The number following the year is the year of the
presidential cycle.Mondays includedS&P-500
Composite
Day5
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Totals 1989-1 0.45% 1
-0.64% 2 0.23% 3 0.23% 4
0.65% 5
0.92% 1990-2 3.19% 1
-0.03% 2 0.89% 3 -1.69% 4 1.21%
5 3.56% 1991-3
-0.08% 1 -0.20% 2 0.91% 3 -0.04%
4 -0.26% 5
0.32% 1992-4 -0.20% 1
0.49% 2 0.46% 3 0.00% 4 -0.22%
5
0.54% 1993-1 0.30%
1 0.36% 2 -0.09% 3 -0.40%
4 0.01% 5
0.18% 1994-2 0.17%
1 0.31% 2 -0.12% 3 -0.49%
4 -0.46% 5
-0.59% 1995-3 -0.19% 1
0.17% 2 0.16% 3 0.17% 4
0.35% 5
0.67% 1996-4 -0.47% 1
0.38% 2 -0.24% 3 -1.11% 4 -0.82%
5 -2.27% 1997-1 -0.37%
1 -0.78% 2 0.07% 3 -1.10%
4 -0.46% 5
-2.63% 1998-2 -6.80% 1
3.86% 2 -0.38% 3 -0.83% 4 -0.85%
5 -5.00% 1999-3 -1.80%
1 -0.27% 2 0.81% 3 -0.90%
4 2.89% 5
0.73% 2000-4 0.51% 1
-0.28% 2 -0.48% 3 1.00% 4 0.20%
5 0.95%
Averages -0.44%
0.28% 0.19%
-0.47% 0.19%
-0.22%% Winners
42%
50%
58%
27% 50%
NASDAQ
Composite
Day5
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Totals 1989-1 0.09% 1
-0.13% 2 0.36% 3 0.21% 4
0.43% 5
0.96% 1990-2 3.79%
1 0.42% 2 -0.28% 3 -0.81%
4 0.67% 5
3.79% 1991-3 0.06%
1 0.07% 2 0.87% 3 0.02%
4 -0.13% 5
0.89% 1992-4 -0.08% 1
0.44% 2 1.00% 3 0.64% 4 -0.25%
5
1.75% 1993-1 0.45%
1 0.74% 2 0.45% 3 0.34%
4 0.14% 5
2.11% 1994-2 0.04%
1 0.43% 2 -0.11% 3 -0.87%
4 0.04% 5
-0.48% 1995-3 -1.16% 1 -0.45%
2 0.89% 3 0.74% 4 -0.06%
5 -0.03% 1996-4 -0.34%
1 0.86% 2 0.42% 3 -0.77%
4 -0.31% 5
-0.13% 1997-1 0.18% 1
-0.64% 2 0.27% 3 -0.89% 4 0.38%
5 -0.71% 1998-2 -8.56%
1 5.06% 2 1.13% 3 -1.32%
4 -0.34% 5
-4.04% 1999-3 -1.67% 1
0.98% 2 0.42% 3 -0.60% 4 3.98%
5
3.11% 2000-4 0.69%
1 0.28% 2 0.53% 3 2.50%
4 0.67% 5 4.67%
Averages -0.54%
0.67% 0.50%
-0.07% 0.43%
0.99%% Winners
58%
75%
83%
50% 58%
Russell
2000
Day5
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Totals 1989-1 -0.01% 1 -0.13%
2 0.33% 3 0.43% 4 0.29%
5
0.91% 1990-2 3.31%
1 0.65% 2 0.34% 3 -0.53%
4 0.14% 5
3.92% 1991-3 0.21%
1 0.09% 2 0.83% 3 0.19%
4 0.31% 5
1.63% 1992-4 -0.02% 1
0.23% 2 0.78% 3 0.40% 4 -0.08%
5
1.32% 1993-1 0.31%
1 0.56% 2 0.37% 3 0.39%
4 0.24% 5
1.87% 1994-2 0.22%
1 0.38% 2 0.46% 3 -0.49%
4 0.05% 5
0.63% 1995-3 -0.34% 1 -0.60%
2 0.58% 3 0.68% 4 0.28%
5 0.60% 1996-4
-0.08% 1 0.67% 2 0.56% 3 -0.33%
4 -0.19% 5
0.64% 1997-1 0.57%
1 0.05% 2 0.60% 3 0.18%
4 0.44% 5
1.84% 1998-2 -5.74% 1
3.00% 2 1.31% 3 -1.80% 4 0.23%
5 -3.01% 1999-3 -1.18%
1 0.11% 2 0.74% 3 -0.83%
4 2.00% 5
0.84% 2000-4 0.26%
1 0.60% 2 0.52% 3 1.03%
4 0.75% 5 3.16%
Averages -0.21%
0.47% 0.62%
-0.06% 0.37%
1.20%% Winners
50%
83%
100%
58% 83%
Good luck
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