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Don't expect the banks to suffer from loss of much more than origination and
servicing fee income. In the new economy, mortgages are packaged up and sold
into the bond market where they are held in mutual funds, bond funds, and
pension funds. Banks have large origination fee interest and little equity
interest in those ever higher appraisals which are helping to push prices
higher. Guess who takes the pipe when the GSE's and CMO's start tanking.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2001 9:58 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] sentiment
> One of the ways this will happen is if the recession continues. Why just
> yesterday... my step son, 25 years old, with an IT degree got laid off
> from HP, after working for a year.. guess what, he bought a house about a
> year ago also. Now he gets to be introduced to reality and stress.
> So, if enough people get laid off with new mortgages and house worth less
> than the mortgages then RE will certainly flush. I would expect the
banks
> to
> suffer a bit also..
>
>
> Don
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2001 11:39 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] sentiment
>
>
> > It appears that people have been playing the real estate game for a long
> > time now and using any increase in equity to refinance and get more cash
> for
> > consumption. Just as there was a limit to how high the NASDAQ could be
> > pumped, there is a limit to how high the credit bubble can be pumped.
> There
> > does not seem to be much hard evidence that the real estate game has
> reached
> > end point. Like all bubbles, it is difficult to forecast a high, however
> the
> > reaction will be disaster when the limit is reached.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2001 8:27 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] sentiment
> >
> >
> > > My condo sale I mentioned before happened in one day. A house down
the
> > > street sold in 6 days at the asking price (which was a bit high $460K)
> and
> > > 20K worth of decks needed to be replaced on it. As I said there is an
> > > extreme shortage of used homes here in Minneapolis. Not sure these
> prices
> > > will hold though, almost a buying panic in spite of the economic
> > conditions.
> > >
> > > Beginning to wonder if people have given up on stocks for the moment
and
> > > have decided to invest their money in something they can feel and
touch,
> > and
> > > that won't "totally" go away on them? They are worn out?
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "sptrader" <sptrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2001 9:14 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] sentiment
> > >
> > >
> > > > Here in Denver, 1 year ago, I offered asking price for a home and
lost
> > it
> > > to
> > > > someone who offered more than asking price !! My next door neighbor
> > just
> > > > sold his home in a few days to the first person that looked at it.
> $250k
> > > for
> > > > a small 3 br trilevel (1500sf) is crazy.
> > > > Steve
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, August 21, 2001 8:52 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] sentiment
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > In Minneapolis a total sellers market, very few used homes. Prices
> > have
> > > > gone
> > > > > up so much I just sold a condo I bought 2 1/2 years ago that was
> using
> > > as
> > > > an
> > > > > office (vs renting office space) for 50% more than I bought it
for.
> > > > > Incredibly that was up 15% over last December 2000(sold it in July
> > > 2001).
> > > > >
> > > > > So the market seems to vary by region or maybe just peaking here
> late?
> > > > >
> > > > > Hey I may have finally sold a top he-he.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Sunday, August 19, 2001 3:41 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] sentiment
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > In Seattle expensive (over 1 million) Downtown condos,
penthouses
> > > marked
> > > > > down
> > > > > > 35% & no rush of buyers
> > > > > >
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