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Hello Tim
god bless,
We need more people like you on the list
Here is a copy of a market letter which I mostly agree with
Last week was weak.
All of the major averages were down with technology leading the way.
The Russell 2k and most of the technology indices hit their lows of the
past several months. Most of the major averages did not hit their lows
of the past several months last week.
All of the new low indicators turned downward last week as did the NASDAQ
new high indicator.
The NYSE new high indicator continues to head sharply upward. This would
normally be a strong positive, but the NYSE lists many closed end bond funds
and preferred's that act like bonds. The NYSE new high list is saturated
with
these issues and for the past 3 years stocks and bonds have been out of
synch
so the NYSE new high indicator is not currently relevant.
The strength in the NYSE AD line is also distorted by interest rate
sensitive
issues. This has not been a problem in the past because stocks and bonds
have
not remained out of synch for very long.
Historically the NASDAQ indicators have not been as reliable as those of the
NYSE. That problem has been aggravated in recent years by the dominance of
the
NASDAQ composite by a few very large cap tech issues.
What is left?
The NASDAQ indicators have held up pretty well during the decline of the
last
2.5 months, but they are all currently heading slightly downward.
Cycles are imprecise at best, but there have been pretty clear patterns on
many indices and indicators in a 90 trading day cycle and many of those
cycles appear to have bottomed. One of the problems with cycles is that the
up part of the cycle does not necessarily mean that prices will rise. Up
from
the cycle perspective can mean that prices fall more slowly than they do
during
the down part of the cycle. We saw the opposite of that in the Oct 98 to
Mar 2K
period when prices rose slowly during some of the cycle down legs.
Seasonally.
Seasonally identifies calendar periods when the markets are strong or weak.
The strong periods are the first and last trading days of each month and the
end of October to early April periods.
September has commonly been identified as the weakest month of the year,
however,
in the past decade as measured by the S&P500, R2K and Fidelity Select family
average,
August has been the weakest month. Breaking it down further Wednesdays have
been
the only profitable day of the week in August over the past decade.
The later weeks in August have been a little stronger than the earlier
weeks.
What might happen next week and why?
The 10-14 trading day cycle that was apparent from early May to mid July
lost
its clarity, however, there have now been 6 consecutive down days on the
NASDAQ
AD line which is on the high side. If this cycle has any relevance the
later
part of next week should be strong.
Seasonally the best day in August over the past decade has been the 10th
trading day
and that is Tuesday. On the other hand Tuesday's in August have, on
average, been
slightly unprofitable with all of the major indices.
Many of the 90 day cycles are due to turn upward and many of the price
patterns
fit that pattern.
August is an awful month, but we are coming off a pretty oversold condition
and
buy Tuesday the cyclical patterns will be positive. Seasonally Tuesday as
the
10th trading day should be strong and Wednesdays are usually strong in
August.
I will be taking long positions as of Monday's close with the intention of
holding them
for 2 trading days (Tuesday and Wednesday). In the sector account the
positions will
be in Internet (II) and Biotech (OI). Internet is extremely oversold and
Biotech
has made a triple bottom.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Timothy Morge" <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, August 11, 2001 5:23 PM
Subject: [RT] More data!
> Good afternoon, RealTraders!
>
> While helping someone else with some history data, I though...Heck! I
might
> as well put the stuff on the web site and let other people have access as
> well. So....
>
> I just uploaded history tick data for both $SPX and $NDX, the CBOE cash
> indexes behind the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures. There is a ton
> of data there...one goes back to 1994 and the other goes back to 1995. The
> download will probably take a little time, so please be patient. In fact,
I
> zipped both files so you will know you didn't have a downloading error
with
> files that large.
>
> It's in the data section.
>
> I hope everyone has a great weekend!
>
> Timothy Morge
>
> www.medianline.com
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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