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I would like to share one more chart this weekend. Its been awhile since
this one has been posted. It is a comparison of the DJIA and the NYA
cumulative net volume (unnormalized) for the period 1999 through July 27,
2001. The redline in the top subgraph is the end of day cumulative net
volume. The magenta line is its 200 day exponential moving average. Note
that each year around July or August the EODCV makes an annual high and then
drops to the 200 day XMA. It works there for awhile and fails to gather
upward momentum so it turns down into the 3rd and 4th quarter. Without the
support of rising net volume the cash indexes also succumb to the annual
scenario. Big question here is, do we get a push up into August and then
down or is this 200 day XMA going to prove to be the lid on the DJIA and the
EODCV until much later this year? Was May 21st the push up for 2001?
bobr
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