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Earl.
I did a recent study on IR4 days which yesterday was one. Inside Range 4
days
One interesting statistic is:
On a day that is a HH, NO lower low and an UP close (an assumption when swan
diving in deep voo doo, doo doo near the close)
is that these days close about 71% of the range of the day above the low.
This is a dangerous trade, although at the Pivot, one did see a double
bottom and it went up. Also the close
was run over triggering hopeful longs stops... The stop off of the pivot, is
two points risk. No, I didn't take it. Still working out the stop on such
trades.
Getting run over then allows the second scenario to play out.. "OK" its
going lower and the day will make a HH and a LL!!!!!
the range for this is about 2.28 of the prevous day. so there is still some
make up room, statistically speaking if you get creamed for two point stop
on the pivot buy. Because this day if it closes up will close up strong
like the above. If its going to really close lower it will close on average
about .23 above the low.
Hope this helps.. It's going to enter my trade book.
don
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2001 4:53 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Intra-day market activity
> Interesting, thanks. My initial cut was that the SP's stubborn refusal to
> break late yesterday was a bullish sign and the upside breakout confirmed
> this. I expected resistance at the 1232 area for the same reason you
> mention, however I expected more of a flag than a full blown retracement
...
> the overall setup appeared conducive to thinking in terms of a position
> trade and adding to position during consolidation. Fortunately, the price
> action convinced me otherwise. I sat out the final rally ... these spike
> rallies from deep (78%) retracements are dangerous.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2001 1:48 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Intra-day market activity
>
>
> > Oh, Boy Earl,
> > I guess the issue as I saw it was.
> > On a 13 min chart look over at 7/5/01 in the afternoon, see that little
> > congestion, that was the do or die area for the
> > drop the next day.
> > The 1231.50 is .3 under that high,
> > The 1231.50 is a .786 retracement.
> > A double top at 1231.50 always sell a double top.
> > An then your own observation is there is no pivot work done between
> 1218.50
> > and about 1212. or so.
> > Think of the pain involved if you bought into this thing. between the
> open
> > and 1231.
> >
> > After re-reading that, it almost seems it was an intuitive statement.
> > Lastly, an Inside day 4, With a HH, No LL and a higher close
> > has a range of 1.60 of the prevous day. Thus when I wrote that the range
> of
> > the day was no way near that average. So it almost
> > begs to be sold just on a probability basis..
> >
> > Don
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2001 3:07 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Intra-day market activity
> >
> >
> > > What made you think that it "had" to fill the gap ... good gaps don't
> get
> > > filled right away and bad gaps do. From here, that first move down to
> > 1225,
> > > rally and break of the 1225 low was the first clue that the rally was
> not
> > > likely to consolidate and hold at high levels ... I had a daily
channel
> > buy
> > > signal and was planning on holding for the first position trade I've
> done
> > in
> > > a while but bailed on the weakness and then went short at 1221. Not
sure
> > > where we are going from here but looks like the sellers are still in
> > > control.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2001 10:36 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Intra-day market activity
> > >
> > >
> > > > Personally, It has to fill the gap. All the longs at the open are
> under
> > > wa
> > > > wa.. oh that is painful ....
> > > > next pivot or R level is 1219.xx. Thats where it should go..
> > > > Don
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
>
>
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