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This is the chart set to which Don referred. I have an opinion based on
symmetry, seasonal history, and trend channels (which may be dead wrong and
will be proven so if we take out 470) ... makes me prone to sitting on my
wallet while watching for something concrete. I was very tempted to take the
short on the daily channel break but (fortunately) hesitated because the
meal has been so strong. If the oil comes out of the dumps we could get a
strong rally.
Also attached is the bean complex which shows trend plus the AGet
seasonals - thin magenta line. I always try to keep an eye on the crush for
clues regarding the direction of beans.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <astrofinance@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 3:47 PM
Subject: [RT] SOYBEANS
Anyone been watching July Soybeans lately? Last week, they were on the
verge of breaking out above the neckline of an inverted head & shoulders.
Tuesday and Wednesday, rumor has it the fund traders got nervous about no
follow through and they tanked. Today, they are right back to the neckline.
That's the quick background summary.
Soybeans are now near an important juncture in both price and time. Price
wise, we have July Beans at the 450 neckline. Time wise, Mercury, planetary
ruler of Soybeans, will be turning Retrograde on June 4 before Monday's
opening. Some of he list veterans (someone on the list more than two weeks)
may remember that I posted similar information for February 26, which was a
low preceding one of the better Bean rallies of 2001. Mercury Retro is
usually a high (observation over 20 years) but it can and does invert.
However, the Feb. 26 example was not a very good example of an inversion.
The rally only went about 30 cents and then failed. Usually when an
inversion low is made on Mercury Retro, the law of exception takes hold. The
law of exception is one that was found by Astrophysics when studying the
distribution of energy and matter in the Universe. This says that the rules
are usually followed, but when the rules are not followed it is cataclysmic
in proportion. (If you apply this one rule to whatever your trading approach
is, it can be the difference between huge success and failure).
I have no scientific percentages on Soybeans and Mercury handy. I have
observed Soybeans in relation to Mercury for about 20 years, i.e. about 4
Retros per year times 20 years.I have nailed some very good turns on this in
the past. (You don't do this blindly. The market has to set up correctly to
do a trade The planets only act as a catalyst.) My unscientific forecast is
that there if Soybeans have a big rally between now and Monday's opening
(another 30 - 50 cents), that should be a high. However, if they pullback or
go sideways and then start rallying on Monday, there could be a very
explosive rally. I recall another June, back in the 80s, when Beans made a
low on Mercury Retro. They rallied about $3 in three weeks. That translates
to a $15,000 potential profit on approx. $1,500 margin. Of course, that was
a rare exception.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Futures trading
requires substantial risk, almost as great as trading some stocks. Futures
trading may cost you your house, your first born, your family, your car, and
your dog. This is strictly for fun and educational purposes only. POSITIVE
suggestions and questions are welcome. All others, please hit delete.
Soy Veyingly,
Norman Winski
nwinski@xxxxxxxx
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