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Delta,
Good Evening, Thanks for the post. On the image you sent I think point 4
and 6 perhaps had a minor inflection but the
picture showed where you just drew a line down to the next pivot.
>>>Commenting on the rotation sequence would be a violation of my
agreement....sorry.
How do you deal with an expectation of such a turn point when it doesn't
happen
>>>I generally wait for it to happen. I look for divergences and use moving
averages. I look for a couple down bars from my speculated top...(when
trading the intermediate term cycle) or jump on board using a confluence of
smaller time frames 5, 10, 30 and 60 minutes with tight stops. Since the
average half cycle width (from top to bottom or bottom to top) is about 10
days on the intermediate term with most markets, I use the 5,3,3 stochastic.
I look for the sharp peaks...the rounded one's fail more than not. Or more
accurately, the rounded tops portend a continuation of the trend as opposed
to a tradable reversal. When something fails, it speaks volumes if you're
listening. Divergences are very useful also, but many times they show up days
or longer before the actual turning point occurs. So I keep a close eye on
them, but rely on price action and moving averages which are the truest
indicators. Coupled of course with fore knowledge of the potential width of
the cycle. So as with many systems....it's a number of indicators one needs
to look at and digest at the same time. But the aspect of delta that i
personally like, is the window into tomorrow or the next day it provides. A
true leading indicator in that respect in my opinion. I know approximately
when to expect something to happen and it what direction. Just my personal
preference and where my experience lies.
and how do you trade or not trade
>>>>Again, it'a all of the above.
in those situations.. Is it a matter of looking at the intraday process?
>>>>Many times yes. As stated above, i look at numerous intra day cycles. I'm
not going to go short when the 60 minute is bottoming on a stochastic. Many
trades I can enter close enough to a top or bottom. If I'm worng, my stop is
based off those smaller cycles so my loss is but a couple bars. I then wait
for actual confirmation...a couple bars off the top of bottom and a
confluence of smaller cycles moving in my direction. Wait for the cycles to
align themselves in your direction.
Look at any SP 10 min. bar chart. There is inherently, prefaced with many
times, a very stable 2 hour cycle from peak to peak. This cycle can be very
stable for a number of complete cycles. Then it loses it's geometry for a
bit, then realigns itself again. When that cycle is stable, it can and has
made for some very profitable trades. Because it gets foggy every now and
then, that doesn't invalidate it for me, it's the nature of the beast. That's
how cycles work. Delta shows that repeatedly on all times frames. At the
beginning of a new cycle, regardless of time frame, things can go crazy.
Volatility increases. But there is some order within that chaos.
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