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Dom:
I believe I was quite explicit when I apologized if I ruffled anyone's
feathers--I certainly meant Haytham to be included in that and he has
posted several times since I wrote the original post. And I have exchanged
a few pleasant emails with Haytham on other matters. I doubt he sees my
message as an attack. In fact, I believe he knew me well enough to know I
wrote down a more accurate statistic for the pattern he was using and then
thought better and erased it, since I cannot state it as fact without
re-doing recent patterns and adding them in.
I have no problem with anyone posting anything here. If someone on RT finds
it of use, that's ok with me. However, the statistic he posted on a chart
was blatantly wrong. I didn't say his methods weren't meaningful and didn't
work for him. I said the statistic he wrote on a chart he posted here was
wrong--not a little wrong, but a lot wrong.
Then there was a follow up post by someone else stating the origin of the
statistic quoted. That may or may not explain much to you and or Haytham.
Again, I posted what I know for certain. I did not go on to post a
percentage off the top of my head. I cannot and will not do that. It is not
how I trade. I do not know how Haytham checks things like an author's
statistics; in this case, I doubt he checked it himself. I also said here
in another post that perhaps the other techniques Haytham added to the
analysis may be contributing to what he and others see as his success to
time the market [Don't mis-read what I just typed. I did not endorse
Haytham's methods or abilities; nor did I defame them].
This is about a statistic that was posted as a FACT. At least where I come
from, FACTS are not loose and free. 5 percent is seldom mistaken for 50
percent. I assure you I would have called DH or Mark aka Research or Clyde
Lee if they had posted something as a "statistic" or well known "fact" if I
knew them to be incorrect.
If we can't point out errors and mis-statements here when people post
charts and comments, tell me now. I'll go back to writing and posting
elsewhere. The traders are not as well spoken as they are here, but they
allow a free exchange of ideas and a dispute amongst honest men and women
is always a part of an free exchange of ideas.
I went to undergraduate and graduate school at the University of Chicago.
We have two things there that always made me stop and think: a memorial to
the birthplace of the atomic age and a stone arch all new students must
constantly walk through on their way to first year classes that says, " and
the truth shall set you free..." That was worth the price of admission.
Best,
Tim Morge
At 11:14 PM 5/26/2001 -0400, you wrote:
>Since I have been attending to other business matters for some time now and
>have not had ample time to read with some continuity the posts, I would like
>to expound on my previous post wherein I came to the defense of Haytham. ( I
>took some time today to read, scan, delete etc.)
>I have had several conversations with Haytham and although he uses many
>indicators that very different as well as very complicated , I have found
>him to be very accurate at market reversal points( He refers to them as
>turning points). This is very different then tops and/or bottoms. The market
>can stay at tops and/or bottoms (overbought/oversold) for some time before
>heading down or up. A worthwhile move is caught when the market terminates
>its top or bottom stay and moves in the opposite direction. This is the best
>time to enter the trade. Needless to say the time frame of the trader will
>be an important factor to each trader. A very short term trader may make one
>or several trades per day. However, he will use the knowledge of the
>direction to short strenght when coming down from a top and cover the short
>when his trading style deems appropriate.Vice versa on bottoms. Since I have
>not been doing my own homework on technical analysis, I have relied on
>Haytham for market timing during this busy period of time for me. At my
>request, Haytham was kind enough to keep me informed regarding market
>timing. In the short time frame involved he has been right on the money. My
>prediction is that , even though I have only had a few conversations with
>him and the market timing signals period has not been extensive, I am very
>sure that he will become a well recognized authority on market timing when
>his track record is confirmed with the passage of time. Haytham methodology
>is not easily understood. However, that should not be a reason for attacks
>on his posts. Incidently, by the tone of some of his posts ,one might come
>to the conclusion that he not exactly a nice guy. Actually he is a very nice
>guy IMO. I am also sure that the tone of his posts are due to some of the
>unwarranted attacks . The attacks should be replaced with a dignified
>exchange of questions and answers.This will benefit all on the list.
>Have a Nice Week End,
>Dom
>
> --- Original Message -----
>From: <H.Albizem@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Saturday, May 26, 2001 4:34 PM
>Subject: [RT] Re: No evidence for lower NASDAQ yet
>
>
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxx> wrote:
> > >
> > > Haytham:
> > >
> > > Look, I apologize to you and anyone else that may have offended
> > because I
> > > was blunt.
> > >
> > > Best,
> > >
> > > Tim Morge
> >
> > Tim,
> >
> > It is ok, I know you don't mean it. I meant to ask you of what do you
> > mean by "It ain't even close to single digits...in fact...well, let's
> > just say
> > it ain't in that ballpark."
> >
> > Do you have diffrent statistics?, you wanted to say something then
> > you backed off.
> >
> > Best,
> >
> > Haytham
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
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