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This P/C evidence comes from Lawrence G.
Mcmillan.....maybe a bit of evidence is beginning to appear....
bobr
Date Posted: May 25, 2001 at 21:35:38Subject: Put Call Ratio
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Update from Lawrence G. McMillan this morning:
"The equity-only put-call ratios have continued to decline at a fairly
rapid pace. That is typical action during a bullish market phase. Now they are
slowing their rate of descent and are lower on their charts. This could easily
be the precursor to a "sell" signal. Specifically, a "sell" signal will occur
when the ratio bottoms and begins to rise.
The "normal" equity-only chart as well as the weighted chart and the
breakdown into NYSE and Nasdaq stocks have all begun going sideways. The
weighted chart is shown in Figure 1. They would generate "sell" signals if
they move up very little from these levels. The only way they could remain on
"buy" signals would be for some low daily put-call ratios to arise soon and
push them lower.
At this time, though, they have not yet confirmed any "sell" signals. Other
ratios have begun to generate "sell" signals, though. These include the
S&P 100 Index ($OEX) weighted ratio, the S&P 500 futures "normal"
ratio, the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ) weighted ratio, and the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX)
weighted ratio. None of these are considered to be as trustworthy as the
equity-only ratios, so we would not take bearish positions based only on these
lesser ratios. "
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