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I have to go with you on this, there is virtually nothing in pattern work
which yields 95% accuracy. Curtis Arnold in his PPS book cites 43.2%
profitability for ascending triangles in an uptrend. While he found 100%
profitability for a rising wedge in an uptrend(the only formation having a
rate higher than 54.5%), he clearly states that he was unable to find a
statistically significant sample size. A symmetrical triangle, which comes
closest to the triangle on the chart, is cited as having 51% profitability.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Timothy Morge" <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 9:09 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] No evidence for lower NASDAQ yet
> Bill and Haytham:
>
> Well, I am no Bulkowski. But I am a prolific chartist. I hand chart 20
> commodities a day and I have been doing so for more than 20 years. Anyone
> that has spent any time doing serious chart work would never believe that
> rate. It's not even in the ballpark.
>
> And frankly, now I know why colleges continue to teach that technical
> analysis is junk and doesn't work--that sort of shabby misrepresentation
of
> reality is just inexcusable.
>
> I guess that will be the title of a chapter in my book: 5 percent failure
> rates of triangles--How to lose money trading without really trying.
>
> Have a nice long holiday weekend, folks.
>
> Tim Morge
>
>
> At 10:49 PM 5/25/2001 -0400, you wrote:
> >Tim:
> >
> >Believe it or not those are the statistics that Bulkowski gives in his
> >book "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns."
> >
> >Bill
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: <mailto:tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Timothy Morge
> >To: <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 10:42 PM
> >Subject: Re: [RT] No evidence for lower NASDAQ yet
> >
> >Haytham:
> >
> >I have to call you on this one. On your gif you claim a failure rate of
> >only 5 pct of an upside triangle breakout?
> >
> >Errrr...You'll have to pull out some serious proof. Cause that just ain't
> >so. It ain't even close to single digits...in fact...well, let's just say
> >it ain't in that ballpark.
> >
> >Best,
> >
> >Tim Morge
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