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Don,
I have a penchant for plumbing the history, I have
never gotten into analasis of day of week. It always seemed to me that the
previous continum correlated more with the probabilitiy of what might happen
more than the day of the week. The query I did last night showed a 14%
chance of a higher close SnP500 if there was a gap down open.
What you are saying, since you listed the Friday
statistic first, is that day of week is a prime factor in determining direction
for the day.
So, in analyzing for Day, do you also sort on
prevous day's action? Like if Wednesday is up Thursday is up, leads to a
60% of a drop on Friday?
Best Regards,
Don Thompson
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Roos
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 3:28 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] some thoughts on NASDAQ
today
Haytham:
Thank you for the pictures and continuing
analysis.
I am wondering if your scenario is in
danger, however.
First of all, tomorrow is Friday, of
course, which is the worst day of the week by far with the spoos having a
-7.4% down for the year so far (intraday trading only, not counting gaps) and
the total of all days is -5.5% down. So, Friday has more than all of the
intraday downmove total for the year. The fact that we have lower lows
today versus yesterday in both the spx and the ndx is not
reasurring.
Sitting near the top of the wide
Keltner fib channel with atr near prior swing lows is not reasurring for
immediate new highs in the spoos. If the cluster of fib supports at the
1280.6 March 8th high were to give away tomorrow morning, a significant
retracement could be seen as atr expansion to the downside occurs. The
fact that VIX sits at 23 on the daily corresponds rather closely to the
approximately 4 mo cycle of vix lows and swing highs.
Just an alternative opinion. As a
daytrader, these kind of projections are only useful to me as a roadmap, but
as for the open tomorrow, I am looking to go short.
Best regards,
Don
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A href="mailto:H.Albizem@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=H.Albizem@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Haytham Albizem
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Realtraders
Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 8:51
PM
Subject: [RT] some thoughts on NASDAQ
today
Some comments on the gif pictures.
HaythamTo unsubscribe from
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