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Can someone post Mark Brown's oddball system including the logic behind it? Thanks- Marc
-----Original Message-----
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 3:40 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Digest Number 373
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------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are 25 messages in this issue.
Topics in this digest:
1. Re: R Points
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
2. Re[8]: the 5/22 new moon
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
3. Re[2]: DA moon
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
4. Re: Re[8]: the 5/22 new moon
From: "David Neeran" <dneeran@xxxxxxxxxxx>
5. Re: R Points
From: "Levent Erbora" <erbora@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
6. Re: R-Points
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
7. Re: R Points
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
8. Re[2]: DA moon and Delta
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
9. Re[2]: DA moon and Delta
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
10. Re: DA moon and Delta
From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
11. Re[2]: DA moon
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
12. Re: DA moon and Delta
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
13. Re: Order Placeing drill suggestions
From: DH <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
14. Re: Re[2]: DA moon
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
15. Re[2]: DA moon and Delta
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
16. Re: DA moon and Delta
From: DH <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
17. Re: Re[8]: the 5/22 new moon
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
18. Re: DA moon and Delta
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
19. Re: On posting predictions
From: DH <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
20. Re: Order Placeing drill suggestions
From: "Prosper" <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
21. Re: DA moon and Delta
From: delta88343@xxxxxxx
22. Re: DA moon and Delta
From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
23. Re: DA moon and Delta
From: CRLeBeau@xxxxxxx
24. "I ain't no Richard Dennis...but"
From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
25. Re: Scientific proof
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 1
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 16:39:22 -0400
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: R Points
...."Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week ago I
posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could look at the chart
and say that there is no correlation or that one really needs to make a
stretch in order to notice a correlation."
Actually I did see it and I guess that despite my masters and doctoral
degrees I guess I am too stupid to notice any greater correlation than the
random dates I posted. Notice on my charts how I carefully positioned the
stars to accentuate the visual effect that they were indeed effective.
However since you threw down the gauntlet I will resurrect my "R-Points",
stick my neck out and say there will be a turning point on May 24th and
May30th +/- 2 days.
As it has been said several times if it works for you great, but if you are
trying to present it as a valid technique then please have some data to back
it up beyond "I don't think one could look at the chart and say that there
is no correlation or that one really needs to make a stretch in order to
notice a correlation.". Can you spell "The Emeror has no clothes?"
dave
----- Original Message -----
From: <delta88343@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 4:09 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
> Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week ago I
posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could look at the chart
and say that there is no correlation or that one really needs to make a
stretch in order to notice a correlation.
>
> No one system is 100% stand alone. Confirming indicators are always
beneficial. Whether Delta fits one's trading style and comfort level is
another story...as with any trading methodology. There are obviously
numerous ways to skin this cat we call the markets and not everyone is adept
or as knowledable on how to best use specific indicators.
>
> But if anyone believes they can just choose any day of the week, plus or
minus a day or 2 to place a trade...be my guest and bet the house.
>
> Also, with Delta, inversions can only happen at specific times within
various cycles. Inversions are also accounted for in other cycle work
outside of Delta. So it appears to be a phenomenon exposed by cycle work and
a function of cycles.
>
> I used to be in communication with an excellent trader (JD) who primarily
used cycles. In his work which was proprietary, cycles inverted also.
>
>
> In a message dated Wed, 23 May 2001 3:21:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time, "d
graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
>
> << Thanks Dennis for putting it so elegantly, I was obviously being very
> "tongue in cheek" with my posts, but my point was exactly that - for
example
> my next "R-point" is next wednesday. Give it +/- 2 days and the chances
are
> pretty good there will be a turning point next week. No turning point -
then
> it must be an "inversion" or "continuation".
>
> And to answer Ira since I believe the comment about plane (sic) nastiness
> was directed about me- I have nothing against planes, and I actually
thought
> my posts were pretty funny and not in any way nasty. And to answer Ira's
> point about random numbers working over an extended period of time - where
> is the proof that Delta works any better than say, choosing every
wednesday
> +/- 2 days
>
> dave
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 1:55 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
>
> > > So just for fun, I
> > > just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and
> > > then chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates - pretty
> > > impressive!
> >
> > Yep. At the risk of getting in trouble again for trying to inject a
> > little logic into an emotional topic, let's think about it a little. The
> > key is that +/- 2 days. Usually, I've seen trading days used for that,
> > so that's 5 trading days total, or a week, or a quarter of a lunar
> > cycle. If we look at all 4 phases of the moon, we've covered the whole
> > month. If we only look at one phase, such as the new moon, that focuses
> > it tighter but, if we are willing to accept several different events as
> > significant, it still can hardly miss. Bear with me here....
> >
> > New moon +/- 2 trading days (25% of the month covered)
> >
> > 25% chance of a high during the period by random chance
> > 25% chance of a low during the period by random chance
> > -------------------
> > 50% chance of a high or a low by random chance within +/- 2 days
> >
> > Now, if we can find 2 more conditions we consider significant, say a
> > "continuation" and [I don't know what else], we have a 100% chance of
> > "something" happening within +/- 2 days of the new moon.
> >
> > Just to be clear, I'm not claiming there is nothing to the moon effect
> > or the planet effect or the sunspot effect. It's just that we need to be
> > careful how we test it or we can fall into a statistical "can't miss"
> > trap that reinforces what we already want to believe.
> >
> > Eyeballing the chart for correlations is particularly deceptive. System
> > traders learn early on that the eye is easily fooled. Plot your favorite
> > system as an indicator and your attention focuses in on the "good"
> > events and totally misses many of the "bad" events. You will swear the
> > system is nearly perfect. It's only when you run the statistics that you
> > find all those times it didn't work as expected.
> >
> > --
> > Dennis
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
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>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
> >>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
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________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 2
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:40:48 -0700
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re[8]: the 5/22 new moon
On Tuesday, May 22, 2001, 9:58:50 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
NW> NW: Actually, I was wrong. Upon futher checking in my library, Dr
NW> Brown's research was on Fidler Crabs. You will find a description
NW> of this on pages 192 - 193 of the Gauguelin book I listed.
Actually, he did research on both oysters and crabs, as well as other
organisms. The literature of chronobiology has quite a lot of work on
many creatures. I would think the oyster work would be more compelling
because they have less complex cycle interactions than fiddler crabs.
With crabs, for example, one has to be more careful not to confuse a
circadian reentrainment of the lunar (tide) day of 24.8 hours to 24
hours when the effects of tides are removed in a laboratory
environment. This can appear to be a change in the lunar cycle, and
one has to look for an extended time (to get stats) to be sure. As I
recall, Dr. Brown did control for all plausible exogenous variables
except gravity.
However, because of their added complexity, crabs have been more
popular in research. Perhaps that is why they were mentioned in your
book.
NW> As for explaining a mechanism, there is a lot of solid
NW> inter-disciplinary science suggesting some plausible theories.
But - back from the constant sidetracks to my original question,
> Let me restate my question. Tell me why the research YOU mentioned
> helps to explain how the **oysters** forced the entire stock market
> to move? The mechanism eludes me. Can you please stick to the topic
> and answer this?
NW> I
NW> suggest you read up on the subject and then we can discuss it on
NW> another list so we don't bore everyone on this list.
I have read in this area. If you have a mechanism by which oysters can
move the stock market in a predictable manner, it is probably of
interest to this list.
I have been trying to stick to a *very* specific topic, and you have
tried *repeatedly* to point the discussion in directions of no
interest to this list. Let's stick ONLY to things that are directly
useful to traders, please.
It is beginning to seem as though you use topic changes and
distractions to avoid answering questions. I suppose after the fifth,
or eighth, or twentieth time, the asker will give up. What say we get
a resolution to the very narrow topic and end this thread?
ztrader
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 3
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:47:10 -0700
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re[2]: DA moon
On Wednesday, May 23, 2001, 12:10:58 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
NW> I don't think this list is a forum to push the technological
NW> envelope, which is what peer review is about.
I sure hope not. Traders need to keep abreast of new techniques
(technological envelope), and if the list can help identify the better
ones (peer review), it is quite useful, IMHO.
NW> I do think this
NW> list can serve as an enlightening and educational experience to
NW> get new ideas to explore and possibly add to one's bag of tricks.
Don't new ideas push the technological envelope?
ztrader
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 4
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 20:53:00
From: "David Neeran" <dneeran@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Re[8]: the 5/22 new moon
Nauseating patronizing meaningless drivel, spam_in_thin_disguise from Mr
Astro Cheapskate.
>From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Re[8]: [RT] the 5/22 new moon
>Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:40:48 -0700
>
>On Tuesday, May 22, 2001, 9:58:50 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
>
>NW> NW: Actually, I was wrong. Upon futher checking in my library, Dr
>NW> Brown's research was on Fidler Crabs. You will find a description
>NW> of this on pages 192 - 193 of the Gauguelin book I listed.
>
>
_________________________________________________________________
Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 5
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 16:54:44 -0400
From: "Levent Erbora" <erbora@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: R Points
----- Original Message -----
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 4:39 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] R Points
> is no correlation or that one really needs to make a stretch in order to
> notice a correlation.". Can you spell "The Emeror has no clothes?"
>
> dave
>
I don't know about him, but you sure couldn't :-))
PS: Loved those R-Points.
But wait till you see my R-murphy-Gannological-astro-cometical LINES :-))
Regards,
Levent
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 6
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 16:55:37 -0400
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: R-Points
...."But if anyone believes they can just choose any day of the week, plus
or minus a day or 2 to place a trade...be my guest and bet the house. "
Note, that I was not suggesting that - just pointing out that random dates
could VISUALLY fit a chart just as well as anything that has so far been
produced. If that is indeed the case then what is the value of the high
powered expensive and time-consuming systems that are being touted. In other
words IF my "R-Points" (memo to self - trademark that) is as good as
picking turning points as Delta, Andrews Pitchforks, Astral squiggly lines
all over a chart ad nauseum, then what additional edge do these methods
have when it comes to deciding what to do AT ANY PARTICULAR MOMENT IN TIME?
dave
dave
----- Original Message -----
From: <delta88343@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 4:09 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
> Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week ago I
posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could look at the chart
and say that there is no correlation or that one really needs to make a
stretch in order to notice a correlation.
>
> No one system is 100% stand alone. Confirming indicators are always
beneficial. Whether Delta fits one's trading style and comfort level is
another story...as with any trading methodology. There are obviously
numerous ways to skin this cat we call the markets and not everyone is adept
or as knowledable on how to best use specific indicators.
>
> But if anyone believes they can just choose any day of the week, plus or
minus a day or 2 to place a trade...be my guest and bet the house.
>
> Also, with Delta, inversions can only happen at specific times within
various cycles. Inversions are also accounted for in other cycle work
outside of Delta. So it appears to be a phenomenon exposed by cycle work and
a function of cycles.
>
> I used to be in communication with an excellent trader (JD) who primarily
used cycles. In his work which was proprietary, cycles inverted also.
>
>
> In a message dated Wed, 23 May 2001 3:21:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time, "d
graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
>
> << Thanks Dennis for putting it so elegantly, I was obviously being very
> "tongue in cheek" with my posts, but my point was exactly that - for
example
> my next "R-point" is next wednesday. Give it +/- 2 days and the chances
are
> pretty good there will be a turning point next week. No turning point -
then
> it must be an "inversion" or "continuation".
>
> And to answer Ira since I believe the comment about plane (sic) nastiness
> was directed about me- I have nothing against planes, and I actually
thought
> my posts were pretty funny and not in any way nasty. And to answer Ira's
> point about random numbers working over an extended period of time - where
> is the proof that Delta works any better than say, choosing every
wednesday
> +/- 2 days
>
> dave
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 1:55 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
>
> > > So just for fun, I
> > > just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and
> > > then chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates - pretty
> > > impressive!
> >
> > Yep. At the risk of getting in trouble again for trying to inject a
> > little logic into an emotional topic, let's think about it a little. The
> > key is that +/- 2 days. Usually, I've seen trading days used for that,
> > so that's 5 trading days total, or a week, or a quarter of a lunar
> > cycle. If we look at all 4 phases of the moon, we've covered the whole
> > month. If we only look at one phase, such as the new moon, that focuses
> > it tighter but, if we are willing to accept several different events as
> > significant, it still can hardly miss. Bear with me here....
> >
> > New moon +/- 2 trading days (25% of the month covered)
> >
> > 25% chance of a high during the period by random chance
> > 25% chance of a low during the period by random chance
> > -------------------
> > 50% chance of a high or a low by random chance within +/- 2 days
> >
> > Now, if we can find 2 more conditions we consider significant, say a
> > "continuation" and [I don't know what else], we have a 100% chance of
> > "something" happening within +/- 2 days of the new moon.
> >
> > Just to be clear, I'm not claiming there is nothing to the moon effect
> > or the planet effect or the sunspot effect. It's just that we need to be
> > careful how we test it or we can fall into a statistical "can't miss"
> > trap that reinforces what we already want to believe.
> >
> > Eyeballing the chart for correlations is particularly deceptive. System
> > traders learn early on that the eye is easily fooled. Plot your favorite
> > system as an indicator and your attention focuses in on the "good"
> > events and totally misses many of the "bad" events. You will swear the
> > system is nearly perfect. It's only when you run the statistics that you
> > find all those times it didn't work as expected.
> >
> > --
> > Dennis
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> Version: 6.0.255 / Virus Database: 128 - Release Date: 5/20/2001
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
> >>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.255 / Virus Database: 128 - Release Date: 5/20/2001
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 7
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 16:57:16 -0400
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: R Points
...Can you spell "The Emeror has no clothes?"
Obviously even I can't spell Emperor :-)
dave
----- Original Message -----
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 4:39 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] R Points
> ...."Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week ago I
> posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could look at the chart
> and say that there is no correlation or that one really needs to make a
> stretch in order to notice a correlation."
>
> Actually I did see it and I guess that despite my masters and doctoral
> degrees I guess I am too stupid to notice any greater correlation than the
> random dates I posted. Notice on my charts how I carefully positioned the
> stars to accentuate the visual effect that they were indeed effective.
> However since you threw down the gauntlet I will resurrect my "R-Points",
> stick my neck out and say there will be a turning point on May 24th and
> May30th +/- 2 days.
>
> As it has been said several times if it works for you great, but if you
are
> trying to present it as a valid technique then please have some data to
back
> it up beyond "I don't think one could look at the chart and say that there
> is no correlation or that one really needs to make a stretch in order to
> notice a correlation.". Can you spell "The Emeror has no clothes?"
>
> dave
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <delta88343@xxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 4:09 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
>
> >
> > Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week ago I
> posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could look at the chart
> and say that there is no correlation or that one really needs to make a
> stretch in order to notice a correlation.
> >
> > No one system is 100% stand alone. Confirming indicators are always
> beneficial. Whether Delta fits one's trading style and comfort level is
> another story...as with any trading methodology. There are obviously
> numerous ways to skin this cat we call the markets and not everyone is
adept
> or as knowledable on how to best use specific indicators.
> >
> > But if anyone believes they can just choose any day of the week, plus or
> minus a day or 2 to place a trade...be my guest and bet the house.
> >
> > Also, with Delta, inversions can only happen at specific times within
> various cycles. Inversions are also accounted for in other cycle work
> outside of Delta. So it appears to be a phenomenon exposed by cycle work
and
> a function of cycles.
> >
> > I used to be in communication with an excellent trader (JD) who
primarily
> used cycles. In his work which was proprietary, cycles inverted also.
> >
> >
> > In a message dated Wed, 23 May 2001 3:21:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
"d
> graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
> >
> > << Thanks Dennis for putting it so elegantly, I was obviously being very
> > "tongue in cheek" with my posts, but my point was exactly that - for
> example
> > my next "R-point" is next wednesday. Give it +/- 2 days and the chances
> are
> > pretty good there will be a turning point next week. No turning point -
> then
> > it must be an "inversion" or "continuation".
> >
> > And to answer Ira since I believe the comment about plane (sic)
nastiness
> > was directed about me- I have nothing against planes, and I actually
> thought
> > my posts were pretty funny and not in any way nasty. And to answer Ira's
> > point about random numbers working over an extended period of time -
where
> > is the proof that Delta works any better than say, choosing every
> wednesday
> > +/- 2 days
> >
> > dave
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 1:55 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
> >
> >
> > > > So just for fun, I
> > > > just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and
> > > > then chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates -
pretty
> > > > impressive!
> > >
> > > Yep. At the risk of getting in trouble again for trying to inject a
> > > little logic into an emotional topic, let's think about it a little.
The
> > > key is that +/- 2 days. Usually, I've seen trading days used for that,
> > > so that's 5 trading days total, or a week, or a quarter of a lunar
> > > cycle. If we look at all 4 phases of the moon, we've covered the whole
> > > month. If we only look at one phase, such as the new moon, that
focuses
> > > it tighter but, if we are willing to accept several different events
as
> > > significant, it still can hardly miss. Bear with me here....
> > >
> > > New moon +/- 2 trading days (25% of the month covered)
> > >
> > > 25% chance of a high during the period by random chance
> > > 25% chance of a low during the period by random chance
> > > -------------------
> > > 50% chance of a high or a low by random chance within +/- 2 days
> > >
> > > Now, if we can find 2 more conditions we consider significant, say a
> > > "continuation" and [I don't know what else], we have a 100% chance of
> > > "something" happening within +/- 2 days of the new moon.
> > >
> > > Just to be clear, I'm not claiming there is nothing to the moon effect
> > > or the planet effect or the sunspot effect. It's just that we need to
be
> > > careful how we test it or we can fall into a statistical "can't miss"
> > > trap that reinforces what we already want to believe.
> > >
> > > Eyeballing the chart for correlations is particularly deceptive.
System
> > > traders learn early on that the eye is easily fooled. Plot your
favorite
> > > system as an indicator and your attention focuses in on the "good"
> > > events and totally misses many of the "bad" events. You will swear the
> > > system is nearly perfect. It's only when you run the statistics that
you
> > > find all those times it didn't work as expected.
> > >
> > > --
> > > Dennis
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > ---
> > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > Version: 6.0.255 / Virus Database: 128 - Release Date: 5/20/2001
> >
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Message: 8
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:59:12 -0700
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re[2]: DA moon and Delta
On Wednesday, May 23, 2001, 12:42:51 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
NW> I don't think anyone here expects a lunar cycle to be anywhere
NW> near perfect. However, if there is a slight correlation, then when
NW> there are other cycles or indicators at that time, it may add a
NW> few more percentage points toward a preponderance of evidence to
NW> give one the confidence to do a trade.
NW> Each information input should be viewed as incremental and
NW> cumulative.
It depends on what you are combining. You may combine completely
independent signals, and the result may slowly improve. Perhaps you
are saying that, for example, a combination of two events gives a much
stronger signal than would be expected from their individual
contributions. In that case, they need to be tested together to check
this. What, exactly, are you trying to say?
NW> To think anyone piece of information will make or break a trading
NW> approach is absurd.
I don't think anyone is suggesting this - they are just evaluating
them one at a time.
ztrader
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 9
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:01:06 -0700
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re[2]: DA moon and Delta
On Wednesday, May 23, 2001, 12:57:54 PM, d graham wrote:
dg> Well after more postings in a day than I have ever done in my life, I will
dg> go back to lurking. I hope everyone enjoyed my "R-points" and the point
dg> behind the postings - you should have statistical proof if you want to rely
dg> on something. Some days I guess my dry British humour just gets the best of
dg> me.
I enjoyed your posts - stay with us, dry humor and all.
ztrader
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 10
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:58:18 -0700
From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: DA moon and Delta
Congratulations. You have cracked the Guru Code. Since most markets exhibit
a reversal about every three days, you are quite safe with your forecast.
For this very reason, I have established and achieved an accuracy band of
+/- one trading day or less on my forecasting technique. I believe this
accuracy is necessary to enable the development of a trading strategy
utilizing the forecast dates.
Jim White
----- Original Message -----
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 9:09 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
> All of this talk about Delta reminds me of a friend of mine who was really
> into this when it first came out, and was convinced how valid the turning
> points were. I then asked him to produce a chart of anything and without
> looking at it just reeled off some random dates - sure enough one could
make
> a 'turning point' withing 2 days of the majority of them. So just for fun,
I
> just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and then
> chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates - pretty
> impressive! My next "prediction" is for a turning point on May 24th +/- 2
> days. Checks for $30,000 gratefully accepted
>
> dave
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: "realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:00 AM
> Subject: [RT] DA moon
>
>
> > I have read all the drivel and supposed humor about the moon, oysters
> > and other things mentioned. I am not into astro, but I do believe there
> > is a repetitive cycle that occurs. If it can be tied or anchored to the
> > moon, to a fictitious count, to one planet interacting with another or
> > tarot cards, I will investigate and say yes it is there or no it isn't
> > there. I bought the Delta book and read it and believed that it had
> > some validity ,but not enough to spend the money for the software or to
> > join the society. I worked with it for about eight months, trying to
> > integrate it into the system that I am using. I found that it was to
> > time consuming for the added confirmation. Guess what? Then ensign
> > added a clever little thing to their program called color bands and the
> > little moon phases. All of a sudden the visual made things appear very
> > simply. I have attached a chart with the delta color bands for the S&P
> > index. You look at the highs and lows of the various bands and see if
> > the match up. You check for when the inversions occur. Does a high or
> > low occur x number of bars into one color and continue to repeat for
> > either the high or the inversion for the same color? Some stocks and
> > futures follow more closely then others, but if you allow +/- a couple
> > of days, I believe that you will find a high correlation. I never cast
> > someone else's work out without seeing if there is any thing there that
> > might improve my trading system without making it more complicated. You
> > be the judge, Newton discovered gravity because an apple fell. I am
> > glad that he wasn't on this list or a lot great physics formulas would
> > have never been made public. Oysters are far more complicated and who
> > knows what great discovery might come from them. Ira
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
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________________________________________________________________________
Message: 11
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:11:12 -0700
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re[2]: DA moon
On Wednesday, May 23, 2001, 12:58:36 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
NW> Bad behavior can spoil or taint genius.
I don't think MB was any worse than some people who are STILL on the
list. There are other ways of being nasty and/or obnoxious besides
'cussing', and some are still doing those obnoxious things.
MB was certainly MUCH more informative and willing to bring up new
ideas than those 'ob' folks still here, IMHO.
ztrader
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 12
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 17:17:17 -0400
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: DA moon and Delta
It is nice to see that several others see that the EMPEROR IS NAKED. All
these posts I made today are on the basis of a considerable amount of
research I did at lunchtime today while eating a Baloney sandwich. I have
decided however to rename my R-points to "W-days". "W-days" will fall on the
wednesday of each week and I will make a prediction here which is valid
until the end of time - turning points will occur on a "W-day" +/- 2days -
if it does not happen then it as "inversion or continuation". OK how is that
for sticking my neck out and without asking megabucks.
Although I have now publically revealed this method I do insist that anyone
trading based on these W-days remit a portion of any winnings to my
favourite charity
dave
dave
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 4:58 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
> Congratulations. You have cracked the Guru Code. Since most markets
exhibit
> a reversal about every three days, you are quite safe with your forecast.
> For this very reason, I have established and achieved an accuracy band of
> +/- one trading day or less on my forecasting technique. I believe this
> accuracy is necessary to enable the development of a trading strategy
> utilizing the forecast dates.
> Jim White
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 9:09 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
>
> > All of this talk about Delta reminds me of a friend of mine who was
really
> > into this when it first came out, and was convinced how valid the
turning
> > points were. I then asked him to produce a chart of anything and without
> > looking at it just reeled off some random dates - sure enough one could
> make
> > a 'turning point' withing 2 days of the majority of them. So just for
fun,
> I
> > just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and then
> > chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates - pretty
> > impressive! My next "prediction" is for a turning point on May 24th +/-
2
> > days. Checks for $30,000 gratefully accepted
> >
> > dave
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: "realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:00 AM
> > Subject: [RT] DA moon
> >
> >
> > > I have read all the drivel and supposed humor about the moon, oysters
> > > and other things mentioned. I am not into astro, but I do believe
there
> > > is a repetitive cycle that occurs. If it can be tied or anchored to
the
> > > moon, to a fictitious count, to one planet interacting with another or
> > > tarot cards, I will investigate and say yes it is there or no it isn't
> > > there. I bought the Delta book and read it and believed that it had
> > > some validity ,but not enough to spend the money for the software or
to
> > > join the society. I worked with it for about eight months, trying to
> > > integrate it into the system that I am using. I found that it was to
> > > time consuming for the added confirmation. Guess what? Then ensign
> > > added a clever little thing to their program called color bands and
the
> > > little moon phases. All of a sudden the visual made things appear
very
> > > simply. I have attached a chart with the delta color bands for the
S&P
> > > index. You look at the highs and lows of the various bands and see if
> > > the match up. You check for when the inversions occur. Does a high
or
> > > low occur x number of bars into one color and continue to repeat for
> > > either the high or the inversion for the same color? Some stocks and
> > > futures follow more closely then others, but if you allow +/- a couple
> > > of days, I believe that you will find a high correlation. I never
cast
> > > someone else's work out without seeing if there is any thing there
that
> > > might improve my trading system without making it more complicated.
You
> > > be the judge, Newton discovered gravity because an apple fell. I am
> > > glad that he wasn't on this list or a lot great physics formulas would
> > > have never been made public. Oysters are far more complicated and
who
> > > knows what great discovery might come from them. Ira
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
>
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________________________________________________________________________
Message: 13
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:16:49 -0700
From: DH <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Order Placeing drill suggestions
Most online brokers have a practice mode for their software. So, paper
trade it just like it's for real. Best practice there is.
--
Dennis
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 14
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 17:25:17 -0400
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Re[2]: DA moon
I could not agree more. Marks Oddball system is the best thing I have seen
publically posted on this or similar lists. I have looked at Tradestation
systems before which run to many pages of code and fall flat on their face
in real time. Yet with a few lines Mark reveals a method which is
understandable, simple, logical and profitable OUT OF THE BOX! Not the Holy
Grail by any means but with a few tweaks here and there amazing. And that
was maybe just the tip of the iceberg of what he might have been willing to
share. Simple, logical and verifiable and free - THROW THAT ROGUE OFF THE
LIST!!!!!!
Dave
----- Original Message -----
From: "ztrader" <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 5:11 PM
Subject: Re[2]: [RT] DA moon
> On Wednesday, May 23, 2001, 12:58:36 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
>
> NW> Bad behavior can spoil or taint genius.
>
> I don't think MB was any worse than some people who are STILL on the
> list. There are other ways of being nasty and/or obnoxious besides
> 'cussing', and some are still doing those obnoxious things.
>
> MB was certainly MUCH more informative and willing to bring up new
> ideas than those 'ob' folks still here, IMHO.
>
> ztrader
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
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________________________________________________________________________
Message: 15
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:25:28 -0700
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re[2]: DA moon and Delta
On Wednesday, May 23, 2001, 1:09:35 PM, delta88343@xxxxxxx wrote:
dac> Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week
dac> ago I posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could
dac> look at the chart and say that there is no correlation or that
dac> one really needs to make a stretch in order to notice a
dac> correlation.
Might a computer analysis of this be even more accurate than the
'eyeball'? Given both, which would you believe more?
ztrader
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 16
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:31:12 -0700
From: DH <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: DA moon and Delta
> Trading is not about perfect science.
Nothing is perfect but, if more traders adopted a rigorous scientific
attitude, there wouldn't be so many people losing money and unable to
understand why.
> Each information input should be
> viewed as incremental and cumulative.
That's where, with all due respect, we disagree. We are all constantly
bombarded with far more information than we can use. Much of it is
contradictory and much of it is irrelevant. The trick is to learn to
ignore information that doesn't significantly contribute to the bottom
line. There is a whole field of engineering called digital signal
processing where the goal is to discard irrelevant information and only
keep what is important. Examples include radar imaging, photo
enhancement, removing the static from an audio recording, using seismic
data for oil exploration, etc.
How often have you seen a trader with a dozen indicators on his screen
and he can't decide what to do? Give him one pretty good indicator and
he will at least be able to make a decision. It may be right or it may
be wrong but he won't sit there, paralyzed, unable to pull the trigger.
IMHO, injecting mysticism into the decision-making process makes the
picture less clear, not more clear. Trading ain't rocket science but we
could learn a thing or three from the rocket scientists about how they
approach problems.
--
Dennis
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 17
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 17:40:04 -0400
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Re[8]: the 5/22 new moon
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Neeran" <dneeran@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 8:53 PM
Subject: Re: Re[8]: [RT] the 5/22 new moon
> Nauseating patronizing meaningless drivel, spam_in_thin_disguise from Mr
> Astro Cheapskate,
I don't think ztrader deserves insults like that.
Cheers,
Norman.
>
>
> >From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
> >Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >Subject: Re[8]: [RT] the 5/22 new moon
> >Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:40:48 -0700
> >
> >On Tuesday, May 22, 2001, 9:58:50 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
> >
> >NW> NW: Actually, I was wrong. Upon futher checking in my library, Dr
> >NW> Brown's research was on Fidler Crabs. You will find a description
> >NW> of this on pages 192 - 193 of the Gauguelin book I listed.
> >
> >
> _________________________________________________________________
> Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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________________________________________________________________________
Message: 18
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 17:51:07 -0400
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: DA moon and Delta
----- Original Message -----
From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 5:31 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
> > Trading is not about perfect science.
>
> Nothing is perfect but, if more traders adopted a rigorous scientific
> attitude, there wouldn't be so many people losing money and unable to
> understand why.
>
> > Each information input should be
> > viewed as incremental and cumulative.
>
> That's where, with all due respect, we disagree. We are all constantly
> bombarded with far more information than we can use. Much of it is
> contradictory and much of it is irrelevant. The trick is to learn to
> ignore information that doesn't significantly contribute to the bottom
> line. There is a whole field of engineering called digital signal
> processing where the goal is to discard irrelevant information and only
> keep what is important. Examples include radar imaging, photo
> enhancement, removing the static from an audio recording, using seismic
> data for oil exploration, etc.
>
> How often have you seen a trader with a dozen indicators on his screen
> and he can't decide what to do? Give him one pretty good indicator and
> he will at least be able to make a decision. It may be right or it may
> be wrong but he won't sit there, paralyzed, unable to pull the trigger.
>
> IMHO, injecting mysticism into the decision-making process makes the
> picture less clear, not more clear. Trading ain't rocket science but we
> could learn a thing or three from the rocket scientists about how they
> approach problems.
>
> --
> Dennis,
Funny you should mention rocket scientists. My uncle was the NASA's first
Director for Space Flight Operations and one of the founders. One of the
lengendary stories about him is that when he was Director at Lewis in
Cleveland, one of the engineers was stumped over solving a problem on
designing an engine. He had his worksheets and blueprints spread out all
over the place and had been working day and night trying to figure out how
to solve this one problem. My uncle walked by to see what the guy was
doing, and he explained the problem. My uncle took one look and said,
why not move that over there? They did and it worked. Intuition works too.
If anyone would like to learn about some really cool behind the scenes
stories about the US Space Program, drop me a line. I will send you a link.
Cheers,
Norman
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 19
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 15:17:06 -0700
From: DH <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: On posting predictions
Not really necessary now but I might as well finish off the example of
how a prediction scam can, in theory, work.
> Trade 1: Based on my work with the Naz Comp, I am buying today on the
> close.
We were right again!
5/22 Bought GENE MOC 9.50
5/23 Sold GENE MOC 13.50
42% profit in one day
140% with 3.3 leverage
> Trade 2: Based on my work with the Naz Comp, I am selling today on the
> close.
We were right again!
5/22 Sold NVMI MOC 10.97
5/23 Bought NVMI MOC 8.10
26% profit in one day
87% with 3.3 leverage
Now, if I could just get my broker to break the rules and let me use
that 30% maintenance margin when I put on a new trade. :-)
--
Dennis
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 20
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 16:13:56 -0600
From: "Prosper" <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Order Placeing drill suggestions
Yes, we're doing that too. Just need to sharpen the mind by practicing.
----- Original Message -----
From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 3:16 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Order Placeing drill suggestions
> Most online brokers have a practice mode for their software. So, paper
> trade it just like it's for real. Best practice there is.
>
> --
> Dennis
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 21
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 18:30:05 EDT
From: delta88343@xxxxxxx
Subject: Re: DA moon and Delta
In a message dated 5/23/01 12:26:37 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
> All of this talk about Delta reminds me of a friend of mine who was really
> into this when it first came out, and was convinced how valid the turning
> points were. I then asked him to produce a chart of anything and without
> looking at it just reeled off some random dates - sure enough one could make
> a 'turning point' withing 2 days of the majority of them. So just for fun, I
> just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and then
> chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates - pretty
> impressive! My next "prediction" is for a turning point on May 24th +/- 2
> days. Checks for $30,000 gratefully accepted
>
I congratulate you for discovering a new system.
We have all heard the story about how the monkeys throwing darts beat some of
wall streets best. Now put it into practice for an extended period of time or
even back test it for same time frame and post your results. Please use real
money since your posted results obviously yield excellent returns.
[This message contained attachments]
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 22
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 15:30:13 -0700
From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: DA moon and Delta
If you spend the money and buy the book, the proof is there with percentages and
time periods, etc. Of course you would rather make jokes and sport at anything
you don't understand or believe in. I am a little more open minded. You use
your random numbers and I will keep checking out the Delta system. It has stood
me in good stead the past week or two since I started looking into it again. I
had a high probability of knowing where the turns would come and what I could
look for 8 to 10 days out. It has put money in my pocket. I will use in
conjunction with Hurst, which you probably don't believe in either, and I will
take the money and say, thank you very much. Ira.
d graham wrote:
> Thanks Dennis for putting it so elegantly, I was obviously being very
> "tongue in cheek" with my posts, but my point was exactly that - for example
> my next "R-point" is next wednesday. Give it +/- 2 days and the chances are
> pretty good there will be a turning point next week. No turning point - then
> it must be an "inversion" or "continuation".
>
> And to answer Ira since I believe the comment about plane (sic) nastiness
> was directed about me- I have nothing against planes, and I actually thought
> my posts were pretty funny and not in any way nasty. And to answer Ira's
> point about random numbers working over an extended period of time - where
> is the proof that Delta works any better than say, choosing every wednesday
> +/- 2 days
>
> dave
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 1:55 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
> > > So just for fun, I
> > > just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and
> > > then chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates - pretty
> > > impressive!
> >
> > Yep. At the risk of getting in trouble again for trying to inject a
> > little logic into an emotional topic, let's think about it a little. The
> > key is that +/- 2 days. Usually, I've seen trading days used for that,
> > so that's 5 trading days total, or a week, or a quarter of a lunar
> > cycle. If we look at all 4 phases of the moon, we've covered the whole
> > month. If we only look at one phase, such as the new moon, that focuses
> > it tighter but, if we are willing to accept several different events as
> > significant, it still can hardly miss. Bear with me here....
> >
> > New moon +/- 2 trading days (25% of the month covered)
> >
> > 25% chance of a high during the period by random chance
> > 25% chance of a low during the period by random chance
> > -------------------
> > 50% chance of a high or a low by random chance within +/- 2 days
> >
> > Now, if we can find 2 more conditions we consider significant, say a
> > "continuation" and [I don't know what else], we have a 100% chance of
> > "something" happening within +/- 2 days of the new moon.
> >
> > Just to be clear, I'm not claiming there is nothing to the moon effect
> > or the planet effect or the sunspot effect. It's just that we need to be
> > careful how we test it or we can fall into a statistical "can't miss"
> > trap that reinforces what we already want to believe.
> >
> > Eyeballing the chart for correlations is particularly deceptive. System
> > traders learn early on that the eye is easily fooled. Plot your favorite
> > system as an indicator and your attention focuses in on the "good"
> > events and totally misses many of the "bad" events. You will swear the
> > system is nearly perfect. It's only when you run the statistics that you
> > find all those times it didn't work as expected.
> >
> > --
> > Dennis
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
> ---
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Message: 23
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 18:32:57 EDT
From: CRLeBeau@xxxxxxx
Subject: Re: DA moon and Delta
In a message dated 5/23/01 2:20:52 PM Pacific Daylight Time,
dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
> It is nice to see that several others see that the EMPEROR IS NAKED. All
> these posts I made today are on the basis of a considerable amount of
> research I did at lunchtime today while eating a Baloney sandwich. I have
> decided however to rename my R-points to "W-days". "W-days" will fall on the
> wednesday of each week and I will make a prediction here which is valid
> until the end of time - turning points will occur on a "W-day" +/- 2days -
> if it does not happen then it as "inversion or continuation". OK how is that
> for sticking my neck out and without asking megabucks.
>
> Although I have now publicly revealed this method I do insist that anyone
> trading based on these W-days remit a portion of any winnings to my
> favourite charity
>
> dave
>
>
>
Dave,
Thanks for sharing the "W Days" pattern with us. Like you said it works
every time.
I am going to combine it with my "LeBeau Wave" theory that states that every
up wave is followed by a down wave. I like to number the "up" waves with a
number 1 and the "down" waves as number 2. If you look at a chart very
closely you will see that all the number 1s are followed by number 2s. Its a
big improvement over the traditional Elliott Wave counting. Just like your
"W Days" pattern it works every time. You always know what the next wave is
going to be. (And just to be extra safe you will notice that I used
Fibonacci numbers to identify the waves.)
If we combine this LeBeau wave count with your "W Days" pattern I think we
have the markets licked.
Chuck LeBeau
[This message contained attachments]
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Message: 24
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 15:35:55 -0700
From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: "I ain't no Richard Dennis...but"
"Re: [RT] question for systems traders"
Tom,
I know that you trade the grains, so I will limit my comments to only the
wheat market. I have used a mechanical system, for the majority of my
customers, for the last four years.
Last year, we traded wheat 24 times and with 22 winners, 2 losses. I wanted
to publish the account statements, but was informed that the statements were
not enough, they had to be independently audited. So, currently, they are
being audited.
With $6 round turns becoming an everyday occurrence, I have filed a
disclosure doc to allow my CTA status to be elevated, allowing me to manage
money (it's what I've been doing since 1975, but currently, as you know,
without the "d doc" you must obtain permission from the customer for all
trades). The commission business has been a "dying dog" for many years and
I noticed last week that the NFA decided to "double" our fees...because they
can.
I used to try to contribute to realtraders, but considering the negative
tone of most posts...who really has the time to get into a "pissing match"
with a bunch of "non-traders". Don't get me wrong, and whoa, don't be
offended if you (in the second person, plural) actually trade...but, many
posters DON'T (not you Tom)..
There isn't one holy grail...there's bunches of them. I use momentum
oscillators (StoRSI, CMO & Bollinger Band Oscillators) to swing trade in
daily and 5 minute time frames. The exact same indicators work on the 50
stocks that I have provided, to the public (absolutely free), for the last
two years.
And, it was sooooo easy ... 25 years in the industry, 10,000+ hours of
research, craters to equity and brain cells, etc. Many list members
continue to challenge each other to publicly post their approaches ... I
guess so they can sling even more shit in the direction of the brave few.
Well, take your best shots. Every trade, in futures or equities, that I
have made in the past two years has been posted, the day before, for public
scrutiny. Please, I don't want any business from anyone on this forum. My
god, who would want most of these whiners in their book? I'd much rather
double money for a wheat farmer, who I can sit down and have a beer with,
than some jerk who doesn't trade and hangs around the forum, only to
criticize and whine.
I would say that the Equis forum is producing about 100 times the value that
this forum produces. Exchanges of formulae, approaches, conversions from MS
to EasyLang and back again, are common occurrences. Sure, like all product
forums, there are people who bitch everyday about what the product doesn't
do. But hey, guess what? The bitchers don't trade...surprise! They spend
all their time investing in negative energy. They soon become morally
bankrupt and folks, it helps to bring a positive attitude to the trading
table. Does the word Karma ring a bell?
On a final note, the regulatory "gods" have decided that it's OK for me to
broadcast "live", provided I hum my disclaimer every few minutes. Anyone,
who might have an interest in their own internet radio show, on my
intergalactic, internet radio network, please contact me privately. I know
that means that many of the people that I disdain will probably be the first
ones to respond...so, if you don't hear back...it means I don't like you.
And as Richard Dennis used to be found of saying (paraphrasing): "I could
publish my exact approach in the Chicago Trib and no one would ever pay
attention". Most folks wouldn't know a great trading system if it sat on
their face...and if they actually recognized and tried to use it, they would
find a way to "abuse and lose" the system and money...simply because they
would allow their large brains to "out think" what could be so simple.
Thanks Tom...I've been tempted to ask your same question.
Steve Karnish, CTA
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Alexander" <gta3@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:48 AM
Subject: [RT] question for systems traders
> Have any of you that trade a mechanical system traded the same system for
12
> months, taken every signal, and been profitable at the end of the period?
>
> Regards,
>
> Tom Alexander
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
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Message: 25
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 18:40:13 -0400
From: "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Scientific proof
> "Nothing is perfect but, if more traders adopted a rigorous scientific
> attitude, there wouldn't be so many people losing money and unable to
> understand why."
While I was working at lunchtime on my great "R-Points" theory (since
renamed W-days) I happened to see a woman on TV expounding on Feng Shui.
This woman was a Feng Shui consultant and makes her living advising people
on how they should arrange their homes and offices for better "Feng Shui
Harmony". For example on your desk in your office you should have a
waterfall to attract better Feng Shui energy. However you should not have a
water source (eg bathroom near the front door of your house (causes 'bad
harmony'. How on earth do you verify such claptrap - sorry such a theory?
You don't need to as long as you can get people to buy into it. Why do
physicians use penicillin instead of leeches to cure disease? Because
scientific examination showed that leeches provided no better results than
chance but penicillin did. That is not to say that leeches did not "help"
some people - people tend to get better no matter what physicians do. That
is why "aromatherapy" works for some people (ever see any scientific
examination of that?).
I hope you can see where I am going with this - Delta, or Astro or Andrews
or Mark Brown or whatever can have the **perception** of working - just as
my random "R-Points" (trademark). If you want to use them without proving
they are more accurate than chance then you are fooling yourself, which is
of course your inaliable right. It is not right however to lead newbies down
false paths (and I am not saying any particular path is right or wrong)
unless you have proof that your system works with an accuracy which is
better than chance. "Anyone can see there is a correlation" just doesn't cut
the mustard and I really don't feel that people should feel angry or
threatened if they are asked for proof.
dave
PS I am now having severe regrets about posting the secret of my "W-dates"
for free in this public forum. I really feel that if I held back I could
have done some serious marketing and started a "W-dates society" for a few
exclusive traders. {Remove tongue from cheek here}
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 5:51 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 5:31 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
>
> > > Trading is not about perfect science.
> >
> > Nothing is perfect but, if more traders adopted a rigorous scientific
> > attitude, there wouldn't be so many people losing money and unable to
> > understand why.
> >
> > > Each information input should be
> > > viewed as incremental and cumulative.
> >
> > That's where, with all due respect, we disagree. We are all constantly
> > bombarded with far more information than we can use. Much of it is
> > contradictory and much of it is irrelevant. The trick is to learn to
> > ignore information that doesn't significantly contribute to the bottom
> > line. There is a whole field of engineering called digital signal
> > processing where the goal is to discard irrelevant information and only
> > keep what is important. Examples include radar imaging, photo
> > enhancement, removing the static from an audio recording, using seismic
> > data for oil exploration, etc.
> >
> > How often have you seen a trader with a dozen indicators on his screen
> > and he can't decide what to do? Give him one pretty good indicator and
> > he will at least be able to make a decision. It may be right or it may
> > be wrong but he won't sit there, paralyzed, unable to pull the trigger.
> >
> > IMHO, injecting mysticism into the decision-making process makes the
> > picture less clear, not more clear. Trading ain't rocket science but we
> > could learn a thing or three from the rocket scientists about how they
> > approach problems.
> >
> > --
> > Dennis,
>
> Funny you should mention rocket scientists. My uncle was the NASA's
first
> Director for Space Flight Operations and one of the founders. One of the
> lengendary stories about him is that when he was Director at Lewis in
> Cleveland, one of the engineers was stumped over solving a problem on
> designing an engine. He had his worksheets and blueprints spread out all
> over the place and had been working day and night trying to figure out how
> to solve this one problem. My uncle walked by to see what the guy was
> doing, and he explained the problem. My uncle took one look and said,
> why not move that over there? They did and it worked. Intuition works
too.
>
> If anyone would like to learn about some really cool behind the scenes
> stories about the US Space Program, drop me a line. I will send you a
link.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Norman
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
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