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No! What he does is take the cycle and and half cycle then offsets them by
half. You select the cycle that you wish to trade. He was enamored with the 14
and 28 week cycles which seemed to work out in his research. Now most of this
is from memory so give me a little slack on this. He usually uses an odd number
for the cycles as those are the only ones that you can line up under a bar. A
10 bar moving average falls between bars 5 and 6, an 11 bar moving average ends
up on bar 6. so if you are using 11 and 21 as the cycle and 1/2 cycle you would
offset one moving average of one by 6 and one by eleven bars. Then you extend
the tangents of these moving averages to the point of intersection for the
projected target. There are inherent problems in drawing tangents, even on a
computer. I did not find that this was productive when I started using Hurst's
work in the early 70's. I have found that the most useful part of his work is
just a basic cycle count. I haven't used channels for over 20 years now. I
find that guessing always managed to get me into trouble. I prefer something
more exact. Ira.
Don Roos wrote:
> Ira:
>
> I believe that is what the Hurst approach does do. He uses a 10wk ma and a
> 20wk ma, and uses the point at which they cross as a means of extrapolating
> the extent of the current move, by measuring from the prior peak to the ma
> cross and then extending a similar distance for the projected turning point.
>
> Stan:
>
> The enclosed continuous chart of the non adjusted daily spoos uses keltner
> bands: the short term on the daily data (10d, displaced 5d), and the long
> term on a weekly data stream .
>
> This area is of particular importance, as HA and others have written, being
> at the top of the wide keltner channel, and the top of the trendline channel
> (with a possible breakout close on Fri), following the upside break of the
> .62 retracement level and the mob on Wed last week. This in the face of
> very low atr levels, and the previously described "vix triangle", we should
> see resolution of the breakout vs down again question very soon.
>
> Best regards,
>
> Don
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, May 19, 2001 12:25 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] SBUX
>
> Why don't you use his offset moving averages to project direction and
> pricing
> targets? Ira
>
> Stan Book wrote:
>
> > The Hurst channel extrapolation shown for SBUX may well be overly
> > optimistic, but the channel is flattening. The 'projected' high
> probability
> > buy opportunity is based on the observation of visual patterns and an
> > extrapolation of past post turn price behavior - a 'possibility', not a
> > certainty. Future price action will determine if this becomes a viable
> high
> > probability opportunity.
> >
> > The purpose here is to partially demonstrate a low risk, high probability
> > way to set up trades for gentle souls who seek the safest possible trades
> in
> > order to protect capital and achieve modest, reliable appreciation. This
> one
> > is not for rodeo cowboys.
> >
> > Because markets are fractal, the approach also applies to other time
> frames.
> >
> > Stan
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > Name: SBUX_010518.gif
> > SBUX_010518.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > Encoding: base64
>
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