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Dear ZTrader,
IMHO you are "beating the dead horse". Could someone be so naive that if
they have a "proff" that event occures 999 times out of 1000 they would be
too shy to mention it? But could any technique exist that correctly predicts
statisticly significant number of turns in the market (taking in accout all
trading expenses )?
With astrology, like with all other deterministic methods (that assume
universe is mechnical and if we new all parameters we could calculate the
future) we are in realm of "belives". As one gentleman noticed (I will
misspell his name Rene Decart?) belives should not be argued.
Unability of participants to predict the market is essencial to market
existance. Does it mean that we should stop trading? No, becase what else
would we do (I am too old to work as gas station attendant). But we should
remember that the main function of the market (stock or futures) is to
deliver money to people that needs it from people who has it. That delivery
is not free (like the delivery of food or other goods). Financial industry
that provides delivery function get paid for it. If one of us (using
astrology, Gann, Elliot or nothing at all) makes some money in that process
too, it is great.
Yours,
Alex.
----- Original Message -----
From: "ztrader" <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, May 15, 2001 9:09 AM
Subject: Re[6]: [RT] DA MOON
> On Monday, May 14, 2001, 11:55:42 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
>
> NW> NW: Yes, I agree. Most people are not proficient in the rigors
> NW> of statistics, including me.
>
> I was not looking for something rigorous, just the simplest stat view.
> For example, I often check out a subjective idea by hand, going
> through charts and seeing how it works. I tabulate the results into
> "yes", "no", and that anathema of rigor, "maybe". :-) Even this simple
> tabulation gives me a good idea of how "statistically" reliable the
> idea might be.
>
> You said that your idea had a "good track record", and I was hoping
> that you had a similar very simplified tabulation of how it performed.
>
> NW> If you like stastistical testing, I recommend:
>
> NW> In the mid 70s, Thomas Reider wrote, "Astroloigcal Warnings &
> NW> The Stock Market"
>
> I was not asking about a general test of astro, just about the trading
> idea you mentioned a few posts ago. I was presuming that you did a
> similar compilation of "yes" and "no" cases to get an idea of how good
> it was.
>
> NW> Previously, I posted informatoin about a computer program that
> NW> will test and do just about anything one could dream of in terms
> NW> of testing Astrological pheneoma and the markets.
>
> I remember your reference to this forthcoming program. Lacking that, I
> was assuming you did evaluations by hand. Perhaps my assumption that
> you did an evaluation was mistaken.
>
> ztrader
>
>
>
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>
>
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