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<FONT
color=#000080>MMA WEEKLY UPDATE FOR WEEK BEGINNING <?XML:NAMESPACE
PREFIX = O />
<FONT
color=#000080>MONDAY, MAY 14, 2001
My introduction to commodities came in
1980, two years after I started studying the stock market. Legendary
cycles’ analyst Walter Bressert invited me over to dinner following
a speech I had given in Tucson in January 1980. As we were waiting
for dinner, he showed me his office. All along the walls, he had
charts of the price of Gold, with a couple of markings on them. They
covered the entire length of one large wall.
You might remember the year 1980 and
January in particular. That was the exact month that Gold and Silver
made their all-time highs at $850.00 and $50.00 respectively. So
naturally he was interested in Gold. Naturally, so was everybody
else in the world of trading and investments at that
time.
He started explaining his markings to
me. There were three time frames that he had highlighted since Gold
had started trading on the COMEX in 1974. In each frame, the price
of Gold had made a long-term high or low, and then went the opposite
direction until the end of that frame. In an area above the price,
had marked "Mars retrograde." A 4th instance was just
getting underway as of January 16, 1980.
At the time, I was more than a little
impressed that this highly regarded market analyst knew anything
about astrology, let alone had put together a relationship between
astrology and Gold prices as remarkable as this. He asked if I
thought that Mars retrograde, or anything else in astrology, might
be relevant to Gold prices as this chart suggested, given what
happened the three previous times. I told him I thought he might
have something here.
It worked that 4th time as
well, for the all-time high in Gold was indeed put in just 4 days
later, and the price dropped like a rock right into the week that
Mars went direct. Unfortunately it has failed to work as
consistently since then. But nevertheless, the Mars retrograde
phenomenon and the price of Gold have forever influenced my
impressionable mind.
I bring this story up because on
Friday, May 11, Mars again turned retrograde, just as it does
approximately every 26 months. And once again, Gold has been
steadily rising into this aspect, as it made a new 5-week high on
Wednesday, May 9. This is perhaps the longest rally Gold has enjoyed
in many moons. And of course the question arises in my mind: Will
Gold now turn down for the next several weeks while Mars is
retrograde?
For stock investors, the rise in Gold
stocks has been quite impressive, as measured by the XAU, the Gold
and Silver Mining Index. From a low of 46.65 on April 3, the XAU
peaked at 60.19 on Wednesday, May 9. That’s an appreciation of 29
percent in just 5 weeks! Perhaps investors with positions in Gold
mining companies might want to consider taking some profits now.
Even though Mars retrograde has not been an extremely reliable
market-timing indicator since 1982, it is also true that there have
been very few rallies into Mars retrograde since then either. This
might be a time when the signature works again.
In the Mundane world, Mars retrograde
tends to coincide with an increase in international tensions.
Threats of wars are on the rise as we see in the Mid East and the
Balkans again. With Mars in the fire sign of Sagittarius those
tensions may be hotter than normal. Generally speaking, an increase
in military threats is not good for the overall stock market,
although it does tend to bode well for defense and weaponry
sectors.<SPAN lang=NL
style="mso-fareast-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-ansi-language: NL; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">The
U.S. stock market has remained near its highs since the March 22
low, with the high in DJIA being 10,995 last Monday, with a re-test
back to 10,979 on Thursday. But I attribute this more to Neptune
turning retrograde as well on Thursday than to Mars, as discussed
last week. This is therefore a critical reversal zone, and if the
temporary high was not achieved last week, I would be surprised. A
pullback now to what we call a half-primary cycle trough seems in
order. This pullback might be steep, but it may not last past this
month before the next leg up in the new bull market
resumes.
<FONT
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here.
Disclaimer: Past
results are no guarantee of future results. Therefore no guarantees
are made by either the author or publisher of this report. You are
solely responsible for any action you initiate in the market, and
the author and publisher assume none whatsoever. Information is
provided with sincere intent, and according to our own proprietary
studies and methodologies.
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