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Group:
I find this discussion by Hopkins; and the previous one by Roos'
spreadsheet especially interesting.
I was told by some experienced 'quants' that there type of exercise
was not especially meaningful; nor useful.
Perhaps the significance of any percieved patterns are based more on
personal beliefs; which then become self fullfilling through
experience and useful intuition. If the quants are correct then any
alternative results would be due to the process of data mining?
Chas
-----Original Message-----
From: Howard Hopkins <hehohop@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 5:41 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Charting Equity -- Example
>RT's,
>
>My excel trade tracking software charts my equity with a line graph. I've
>found that I've unconsciously produced chart patterns. For example I had
>equity peak at what created a double top. When I saw the double top form I
>remember thinking to myself, "Great this is a double top" and sure enough I
>went through a multiweek drawdown. I built back up to triple top area and
>"knew" I was ready to breakout to new highs and that's what happened.
>
>I haven't figured out if it's helpful or harmful to look at my equity
chart.
> All I do know is that my equity has created familiar patterns. The
>question I need to answer is, "Are these chart patterns natural or self
>fulfilled unconsciously?".
>
>The things I do think are helpful are my trading stats: % winning trades
to
>losing trades; average $ & point win to loss ratio; % of trades long vs
>short; % of winning trades that are long and short;
>
>Howard
>
>
>>From: Brian Keith Voiles <admagic@xxxxxxxx>
>>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>Subject: [RT] Charting Equity -- Example
>>Date: Sun, 06 May 2001 18:07:30 -0600
>>
>>Dear Experienced RealTraders,
>>
>>Is this a good way to chart my equity? If so, am I to assume that once my
>>account
>>balance gets near $25,000 I should consider myself "overbought" and I
>>therefore need to
>>become more cautious?
>>
>>These are my actual results over the last month... you can see I
>>had a pretty big "draw-down" on April 24th and 25th... the 2 days
following
>>a nice run
>>up in equity.
>>
>>Should I chart each trade? This is a chart of daily results... but I'm
>>thinking that charting
>>each trade would be more valuable.
>>
>>Should I add a 20-period Moving Average, stochastics, RSI, etc... all to
>>help me know
>>when I'm most likely to hit some losses?
>>
>>Should I read a book to learn how to do this correctly?... if so what book
>>is recommended?
>>Thank you for your valued input... I know I have a lot to learn.
>>
>>Warmly,
>>Brian Voiles
>><< Clipboard.jpg >>
>
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