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Lenny,
Thanks for your re-posting the info .382 time for wave 4 of wave 2 to wave
3, I wanted to confirm what had been said before (as I am a big fan of ABC's
in Wave 4's that also can unfold into something else . . (like a 1-2-3).
Affirmative on the possibilities you have outlined so one needs to just let
it unfold I guess (the minor 4 of wave 3 however is one I had not
considered). I had noticed the wave 1 peak at 99-28 and that the bonds
stopped in ACE on Thurs night/early Friday am at 99-31, and in the day
session returned once again to test that level with a low of 100-01, so the
importance of that previous pivot or wave 1 (or wave A) whatever one wants
to call it is certainly coming into play and should be watched carefully
(may have stock market implications also?). I do use the 17% overlap in AGET
for futures, especially with the bonds (since "they" do love to push
everyone into thinking one thing, then promptly do the other, like at the
recent top. Now everyone invested in bond futures (or bonds) on the long
side this year are upside-down). I wish I had noticed the .786 retracement
back then because it would have been a great place to get short with a stop
or a place to sell the 107/108 calls, but I noticed it later unfortunately
(but still in time to sell premium with the May 105 &104 calls).
Attached is a monthly bond chart I had worked up prior your reply today that
contained many of the same possibilities (with a very extended wave 5?). A
while back a major bond player quit trading the bonds, stating publicly on
CNBC the long term bull market in the bonds might be over? I am not saying I
agree with that statement necessarily (nor do I understand why this would
cause him to stop trading bonds) since prior to this I have been in the
"over capacity" deflation camp (right or wrong), but the two levels 99-28
and 107-12 will likely define "long term" the course of interest rates
eventually. Any action in these areas is definitely worth watching.
Notice the rally high in the 107 range also failed near the centerline of a
std. regression channel.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: <rosow@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, April 22, 2001 12:05 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] NASDAQ Rhythm or Bond Rhythm?
> Don - A few scenarios on the Weekly Bonds for you to look at:
>
> 1) Since I like Wave 3's to be around the 161.8% extension of Wave 1 and
the
> Weekly Bonds so far have fallen well short of that mark (110-14) you could
> make the case, albeit not a great one due to the Elliott Oscillator, that
the
> Bonds are currently in a Wave 4:3. Not likely but confirmation of this
would
> be the most recent high being taken out before the July time frame.
>
> 2) Go with GET's count of a current Wave 4. Besides the time issue that
has
> been discussed, there is a issue regarding Wave 4 overlapping into Wave 1.
> GET allows on futures charts a 17% overlap. I'm usually pretty rigid on
the
> rule and simply don't like to see a close into Wave 1's territory. If you
run
> a "whatif" bar below the Wave 1 high of 99-28 and change the 17% overlap
back
> to 0% overlap then GET's count will change to a completed ABC. If 99-28
holds
> and we have a B:4 move back up then I would look towards a 50%-61.8%
> retracement before the C:4 move back down. The biggest clue for this
scenario
> is for 99-28 to hold.
>
> 3) This is the one I may hold my hat on right now especially if there is a
> breakdown below 99-28. The 10/09/98 - 01/21/00 move has just been retraced
by
> exactly 78.6% to 107-08. This is very common for Wave 2's and also Wave
B's.
> Either way the possibility of this current move down being the start of a
3
> or C is very real. My confirmation here would be to first watch the
> inevitable retracement back up towards 107-08 and see if it holds. The
next
> move down would need to:
>
> A) break below 1:3 or A:4
> B) break below the Minor 1 or A high
>
> Well, I think I have all the bases covered! (ggg) As usual, the moves of
the
> market will start throwing out each scenario 1 x 1.
>
> Lenny
>
>
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