|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Since 4/04 Teresa and I have been warning as to the potential for a
dramatic move up. In particular the price action on NQ/ND at the close of
4/04 formed a text book "2B" pattern, a favorite setup for potential trend
change.
I sent round a chart to the group a few days back highlighting this
development and the following two days of price action. Even then 4/05 -
4/09, the price action continued to be supportive of an uptrend thesis.
Here are those same charts with the last few days now completed:
ES
http://www.ottographs.com/charts/2001-04/10/MW-16.gif
NQ
http://www.ottographs.com/charts/2001-04/10/MW-17.gif
I don't trade on sentiment but found it interesting to note that during
4/04 - 4/09 there seemed to be a palpable increase in what was already an
extremely negative sentiment environment. Discussions of 'low volume' /
'can't last' / 'a bounce to short' / layoffs / etc - predominated trader
talk, yet during this time the price action continued to be constructive
and supportive of a major move up.
Is this "the" bottom - who knows - I'll leave that pronouncement to the
forecasters and pundits. It is likely to be a tradeable rally?
It seems at this point to be more likely than not.
We should also note that price today made higher bars on the weekly charts
than last week. In over two months that has only happened once on SPX /
NDX, and while that up bar didn't take hold and turn into anything more
than a short bounce, this one may well live for a while and we should be
open to that possibility.
Just the same, I will continue to position trade cautiously. Near the close
I closed almost all positions I put on a few days ago, the outsized gains
just had to be booked. But on any constructive retracement I will be a
buyer on a move up from there.
At 10:25 PM 4/10/2001 -0500, Michael Ferguson wrote:
>sp failed to get the 127% extension; looks double-toppy. but markets don't
>listen to me.
>
IntelligentSpeculator.com
Michael Watkins
Chief Technical Officer
watkins@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Receive free end of day market commentary by email
http://www.ispeculator.com/yahoogroups.html
OttoGraphs.com Swing Charts
http://www.ottographs.com/swingcharts/
Visit our thread on Silicon Investor!
http://www.ispeculator.com/siliconinvestor.html
TopTick.org SquawkBox Trader's Club
http://www.TopTick.org
Its a CNBC Power Lunch Cool Site
http://www.ispeculator.com/cnbc.htm
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-~>
Rates are falling -- now is the time to Refinance!
IndyMac Bank guarantees to beat any mortgage by $300 or
they will pay you $300! Get your FREE quote here.
http://us.click.yahoo.com/Eavf1C/7fYCAA/MPlEAA/zf_UlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------_->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|
