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You make a good point - everyone is still looking
for the "instant bottom" just as everyone was so enthralled with the idea of
buying stocks for an "instant rally". The current generations have been raised
on "instant everything" and the last generation which lived through THE last
real bear market has all but departed. Even the bear market of the 70's was a
long drawn out process and the excesses of the 60's and early 70's pale in
comparison to those of the 90's bull market. While everyone is looking for
the V bottom in stocks, few are paying attention to the corporate
excesses which drove the market ever higher and must now be unwound ... managed
earnings, underwater options, egregiously high executive compensation packages,
financial engineering, and all those corporate bonds which were floated
to keep the stock going ever higher via stock buybacks. And let us not
forget those credit cards, 401k's, and home equity loans used to finance the
consumer side of this bubble. Just as it will quite likely take several new
generations of investors to fuel another raging bull market, it will quite
likely take a new generation of executives to right the ship of corporate
America.
I suspect we will see many V bottoms but the real
bottom (when everyone tires of buying V's) will be a long, drawn out affair
lasting more than a week, more than a month, more than a year, perhaps more than
a decade.
Earl (not a
catcher of falling knives)
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=onwingsofeagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:onwingsofeagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Gitanshu Buch
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, April 03, 2001 10:52
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] STK: CSCO and Bear
Mkts
I, for one, am openly in awe of the destruction - and there
is still no bigwig losing jobs, getting fired, revolution, political
intervention or upheaval due to lack of intervention etc as typically happens
in other bear markets.
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