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You have another factor that has entered the market. That is the ones that are
short and complacent. All you have to do is sell tech, comm, banks, etc. and
wait for the cash to roll in. Just the opposite in direction, but the same
greed factor, and complacency that occured on the up side. What usually
happens, at least in the past, is a sharp, violent bear market rally that takes
no prisoners and gets the bulls excited again, just before the bottom drops out
again. At this point, when both the bulls and bears are afraid and won't enter
the markets, then the strong hands come in and start buying. It happens when
all those that want out are out and those that are in can't budge to do
anything. Have a good week, and look for that rally, it will be a barn
burner. Ira.
Earl Adamy wrote:
> We're making progress ... first it was greed season for years, more
> recently, fear and hope season ... fear yesterday, hope this morning, fear
> this afternoon. The masses don't know what to think until the pundits fill
> their minds with some emotion they can get their arms around. Wait until
> tonight, the evening news will be full of how not even a 50bp cut could save
> the market (if Clinton taught us anything, it's that it's the spin which
> counts). Fear should really begin to permeate the public psyche. The bear
> will be finished when there is no hope, only fear.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, April 20, 2001 3:51 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Tail wagging the dog?
>
> > I agree with you about the lack of fear but by the time fear takes the
> > hearts of the average, new, investor, the NAS will be in minus
> > territory! That is to say they have sat through -3400 points already and
> > those left are as sure their stocks will come back as they are sure their
> > children are the most handsome on the block. Ignorance is bliss .. you
> > can't fight it.
> >
> > Good trading all ...
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> > 07:13 PM 3/19/2001 -0700, you wrote:
> > >Well, if you don't believe in TA, perhaps you believe in psychology ...
> > >there has not been nearly enough fear to make up for the years and
> thousands
> > >of points of greed. The virtuous circle of managed earnings and executive
> > >compensation has now been interrupted and they're just getting started
> > >wringing the crud out of the books, executive compensation, and options
> > >grants.
> > >
> > >Earl
> > >
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Sent: Monday, March 19, 2001 5:07 PM
> > >Subject: [RT] Tail wagging the dog?
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Most of those here know that I'm not a technician and don't put a lot
> of
> > > > stock in it. Even so, I have come to respect many members on this
> list
> > >for
> > > > the hard work they do and I have come to appreciate that when most of
> the
> > > > technicians agree on one thing, it is like to happen due to their
> belief,
> > > > if nothing else. I spent some time this weekend looking at the
> economy,
> > > > what large caps are saying and what the firms that supply them are
> > > > saying. My conclusion is basic.. I believe the tail is wagging the
> dog.
> > > >
> > > > Some have compared the current situation to the democratic inspired
> mess
> > >of
> > > > the Carter administration and it's 22% interest rates , freeze on wage
> > > > increases etc. The Reich mess. (I probably mispelled his name).
> Lets
> > >see
> > > > where we are. We have low interest rates and they are dropping. We
> have
> > > > nearly zero inflation. We have a business environment that is healthy
> but
> > > > dropping off the greatest growth cycle in our history. Why is it
> > > > dropping? What is the catalyst?
> > > >
> > > > In my opinion, it is the stock market. It's cutting 50-90% of a firms
> > > > market cap and the borrowing power and purchasing ability that goes
> with
> > > > that. Filter that down to the mid caps that supply them and the small
> > >caps
> > > > that supply the mid caps and you have a mess. Japanese banks aside,
> if
> > > > people begin to buy stocks again, I believe you'll see a magical
> recovery
> > > > in the economy. (Of course, the same is true for the end line
> consumer
> > > > once his/her savings/investments begin to recover as well).
> > > >
> > > > Last, I believe this event/bearmarket/correction was needed and needed
> > > > badly. Now, the bubble is burst. The pie in the sky throwing money
> at a
> > > > dartboard of equity names is over. The throwing money at any .com
> stock
> > > > that comes along is over. The market is returning to common sense and
> > > > while this scares many folks into a panic and predictions of disaster,
> one
> > > > needs to consider what is wrong with the market and if it's just the
> > >market
> > > > itself, once it turns, the economy will turn with it and the shorts
> will
> > >be
> > > > just like the fanatics were two years ago .. they won't believe it can
> > > > actually go back up and will get hammered.
> > > >
> > > > Anyway, I try not to post too often these days so I hope you'll
> tolerate
> > >my
> > > > ranting. :))
> > > >
> > > > Good investing to all .. be nimble
> > > >
> > > > Bob
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
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> >
> >
>
>
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