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We're making progress ... first it was greed season for years, more
recently, fear and hope season ... fear yesterday, hope this morning, fear
this afternoon. The masses don't know what to think until the pundits fill
their minds with some emotion they can get their arms around. Wait until
tonight, the evening news will be full of how not even a 50bp cut could save
the market (if Clinton taught us anything, it's that it's the spin which
counts). Fear should really begin to permeate the public psyche. The bear
will be finished when there is no hope, only fear.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, April 20, 2001 3:51 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Tail wagging the dog?
> I agree with you about the lack of fear but by the time fear takes the
> hearts of the average, new, investor, the NAS will be in minus
> territory! That is to say they have sat through -3400 points already and
> those left are as sure their stocks will come back as they are sure their
> children are the most handsome on the block. Ignorance is bliss .. you
> can't fight it.
>
> Good trading all ...
>
> Bob
>
>
> 07:13 PM 3/19/2001 -0700, you wrote:
> >Well, if you don't believe in TA, perhaps you believe in psychology ...
> >there has not been nearly enough fear to make up for the years and
thousands
> >of points of greed. The virtuous circle of managed earnings and executive
> >compensation has now been interrupted and they're just getting started
> >wringing the crud out of the books, executive compensation, and options
> >grants.
> >
> >Earl
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Monday, March 19, 2001 5:07 PM
> >Subject: [RT] Tail wagging the dog?
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Most of those here know that I'm not a technician and don't put a lot
of
> > > stock in it. Even so, I have come to respect many members on this
list
> >for
> > > the hard work they do and I have come to appreciate that when most of
the
> > > technicians agree on one thing, it is like to happen due to their
belief,
> > > if nothing else. I spent some time this weekend looking at the
economy,
> > > what large caps are saying and what the firms that supply them are
> > > saying. My conclusion is basic.. I believe the tail is wagging the
dog.
> > >
> > > Some have compared the current situation to the democratic inspired
mess
> >of
> > > the Carter administration and it's 22% interest rates , freeze on wage
> > > increases etc. The Reich mess. (I probably mispelled his name).
Lets
> >see
> > > where we are. We have low interest rates and they are dropping. We
have
> > > nearly zero inflation. We have a business environment that is healthy
but
> > > dropping off the greatest growth cycle in our history. Why is it
> > > dropping? What is the catalyst?
> > >
> > > In my opinion, it is the stock market. It's cutting 50-90% of a firms
> > > market cap and the borrowing power and purchasing ability that goes
with
> > > that. Filter that down to the mid caps that supply them and the small
> >caps
> > > that supply the mid caps and you have a mess. Japanese banks aside,
if
> > > people begin to buy stocks again, I believe you'll see a magical
recovery
> > > in the economy. (Of course, the same is true for the end line
consumer
> > > once his/her savings/investments begin to recover as well).
> > >
> > > Last, I believe this event/bearmarket/correction was needed and needed
> > > badly. Now, the bubble is burst. The pie in the sky throwing money
at a
> > > dartboard of equity names is over. The throwing money at any .com
stock
> > > that comes along is over. The market is returning to common sense and
> > > while this scares many folks into a panic and predictions of disaster,
one
> > > needs to consider what is wrong with the market and if it's just the
> >market
> > > itself, once it turns, the economy will turn with it and the shorts
will
> >be
> > > just like the fanatics were two years ago .. they won't believe it can
> > > actually go back up and will get hammered.
> > >
> > > Anyway, I try not to post too often these days so I hope you'll
tolerate
> >my
> > > ranting. :))
> > >
> > > Good investing to all .. be nimble
> > >
> > > Bob
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
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