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----- Original Message -----
From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, March 19, 2001 7:07 PM
Subject: [RT] Tail wagging the dog?
BobsKC,
If the tail is wagging the dog, what is controlling the tail?
Cheers,
Norman
>
> Most of those here know that I'm not a technician and don't put a lot of
> stock in it. Even so, I have come to respect many members on this list
for
> the hard work they do and I have come to appreciate that when most of the
> technicians agree on one thing, it is like to happen due to their belief,
> if nothing else. I spent some time this weekend looking at the economy,
> what large caps are saying and what the firms that supply them are
> saying. My conclusion is basic.. I believe the tail is wagging the dog.
>
> Some have compared the current situation to the democratic inspired mess
of
> the Carter administration and it's 22% interest rates , freeze on wage
> increases etc. The Reich mess. (I probably mispelled his name). Lets
see
> where we are. We have low interest rates and they are dropping. We have
> nearly zero inflation. We have a business environment that is healthy but
> dropping off the greatest growth cycle in our history. Why is it
> dropping? What is the catalyst?
>
> In my opinion, it is the stock market. It's cutting 50-90% of a firms
> market cap and the borrowing power and purchasing ability that goes with
> that. Filter that down to the mid caps that supply them and the small
caps
> that supply the mid caps and you have a mess. Japanese banks aside, if
> people begin to buy stocks again, I believe you'll see a magical recovery
> in the economy. (Of course, the same is true for the end line consumer
> once his/her savings/investments begin to recover as well).
>
> Last, I believe this event/bearmarket/correction was needed and needed
> badly. Now, the bubble is burst. The pie in the sky throwing money at a
> dartboard of equity names is over. The throwing money at any .com stock
> that comes along is over. The market is returning to common sense and
> while this scares many folks into a panic and predictions of disaster, one
> needs to consider what is wrong with the market and if it's just the
market
> itself, once it turns, the economy will turn with it and the shorts will
be
> just like the fanatics were two years ago .. they won't believe it can
> actually go back up and will get hammered.
>
> Anyway, I try not to post too often these days so I hope you'll tolerate
my
> ranting. :))
>
> Good investing to all .. be nimble
>
> Bob
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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