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Gary, If I understand the comparison right the Nikkei is in months and the
NASDAQ is in weeks based on what I saw Friday posted by Susan Burns on CNBC.
What is yours?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: <gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 18, 2001 3:48 PM
Subject: [RT] if this were the Nikkei ....
> See atteched: (1) a comparison of SPX comparison versus the Nikkei,
> with the Nikkei normalized to agree with the S&P 500 top and
> extrapolated forward in time, (2) a similar plot comparing the
> NDX 100 to the Nikkei.
>
> A few observations:
> 1) the SPX and Nikkei agree closely in their behavior heading into
> the top, however the SPX made another attempt at the all-time high
> and the Nikkei just kept dropping.
>
> 2) the SPX appears to be lagging the Nikkei by about three months,
> and if the S&P were to perform similarly to the Nikkei, we might
> expect a massive spike down sell-off to the 800 level, or about
> a -30% drop, then a bounce above 1000, and a subsequent drop to
> the 600 level, which works out to about a -50% drop from current
> levels, or -60% from the closing high.
>
> 3) By analogy to the Nikkei, the initial market bottom would be
> in the late 2002 to early 2003 timeframe. However, those lows
> would be retested agin 2005, and would eventually give ground
> further in 2009, attempt a rally in 2010, and ultimately collapse
> in 2011.
>
> 4) The NDX comparison isn't as close. The NDX outperformed,
> by climbing more rapidly into the 3/27/2000 top, and has collapsed
> much faster than the Nikkei. This rapid drop would argue for
> an ultimate much lower low, to visit perhaps the lows of 1997,
> in the 800 area, a fulll 80% to 90% off from the 3/27/2000 top.
>
>
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>
>
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