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Daily:
The S&P 500 cash daily chart shows 5 waves are in and we are "playing
around" with the MOB. It is not real clear what is a break or not is of a
MOB as I have mentioned before. Sometimes we just touch them other times go
into and slightly through them as is the case here (almost a slam don't
trade if we break it and start to move away from it). Also note how well the
Ellipse caught the high of Wave 4 almost exactly (blue circle figured from
the start of wave 1 to the end of wave 3). One particular note of concern is
the Wave 5 10/70 oscillator at the bottom of the chart (went to that since
the 5/35 "lost control") is larger than the Wave 3 oscillator, which means
the Wave 5 is really a Wave 3 and if a rally occurs it is really a Wave 4
rally (and the Wave 4 shown is minor wave 4 of Wave 3). So . . . we are at
some support here too, which "needs" to hold or this market has problems. If
we get the Wave 4 rally analyzing its structure will give clues to the
"future" Wave 5 down, regarding its strength, double bottom potential or
again whether this is just one big ABC correction and a bottom is in.
Weekly:
Checking the cash S&P weekly chart, the lows this week were at the lower
level of the weekly MOB, so again it needs to hold in here or possible
further trouble is brewing? The weekly Wave 3 is also just past the 1.618
expansion level (recall 75% of all Wave 3's end between 1.618 and 2.618
expansions of Wave 1 subtracted from Wave 2 high). Again it is at support is
the point I am trying to make here and a rally could occur, ditto above
regarding analyzing it for the Wave 5 potential.
Good luck and good trading,
don ewers
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