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----- Original Message -----
From: "Stan Book" <sbook@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 9:39 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] DJIA: random thoughts
> The value of scenarios is not that they predict the market, but that they
> provide a context for interpreting market action as it unfolds. Your
> scenario is appropriate for this purpose.
>
> Haven't done the statistical study, but I believe V bottoms are
> significantly more prevalent than double bottoms.
>
> One reservation is the projected cycle low for April (see DJIA cycle
stuff,
> 3-1-01). Of course, this low could come in at a higher level.
>
> My other reservation is: have the folks who move markets accumulated
enough
> inventory to sustain a 3-6 month advance? Perhaps they have: 19 Dow stocks
> show moderate to significant accumulation, 2 are neutral and 9 show
moderate
> to significant distribution. This is a more positive accumulation profile
> than I had anticipated.
>
> With almost 2/3 of its components showing accumulation, the DJIA may be
> primed for an advance.
>
> Norman, now that the DJIA has convincingly violated its uptrend line from
> the 94 low, do you anticipate a violation of the uptrend line from the 82
> low? If so, do you expect the violation to occur this calendar year?
>
> NW: You talkin to me? <G> Don't know about the DJIA other than it has
been in its own little world and an old Wall Street adage is that when they
raid the house of ill-repute everyone goes inlcluding the piano player. So,
eventually, before the really big picture is resolved, I expect the DJIA at
much lower levels. However, I do expect a big bear market multi-month bounce
very soon. So, I still stand by my projection for the S&P 500 at the 1120
level by March 16 close or
March 19 opening.
Cheers,
Norman
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2001 9:44 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] [RT} DJIA: random thoughts
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Stan Book" <sbook@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2001 10:24 AM
> Subject: [RT] [RT} DJIA: random thoughts
>
>
> > The symmetrical price action of the DJIA demonstrates a perfect balance
> > between risk averse investors fleeing the DOW for the safety of cash and
> > wounded speculators fleeing devastation elsewhere in the market for the
> > relative safety of the DOW. This is typical behavior at the end of an
> > extended inflationary spiral in equities.
> >
> > Those Motley Fools have decreed that equities are the only rational long
> > term investment and that holding through bull and bear markets is the
only
> > rational long term investment strategy. With this mentality prevalent
> among
> > the public, a bruising bear market would be required to reeducate them.
> >
> > Between the present delicate balance and the end of confidence in
equities
> > as an investment vehicle, we can anticipate extreme frustration for
> > perennial bears and false hope for buy-and-hold bulls.
> >
> > A basing period of a month or so would allow for substantial
accumulation
> > which could support a powerful counter trend advance. This would be my
> > preferred scenario over a V bottom and a weaker advance. Time will tell.
>
> Stan,
>
> I think the scenario that pulls all of your above mentioned factors
> together is a V bottom forming
> in the next week, a 3-6 month big bear market rally that fools the public
> into complancency, then, another long grinding bear market to new lows hat
> ends with
> "MOTLEY FOOLS FILE CHAPTER 7"
>
> Cheers,
>
> Norman
>
>
>
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
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