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----- Original Message -----
From: "Stan Book" <sbook@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2001 10:24 AM
Subject: [RT] [RT} DJIA: random thoughts
> The symmetrical price action of the DJIA demonstrates a perfect balance
> between risk averse investors fleeing the DOW for the safety of cash and
> wounded speculators fleeing devastation elsewhere in the market for the
> relative safety of the DOW. This is typical behavior at the end of an
> extended inflationary spiral in equities.
>
> Those Motley Fools have decreed that equities are the only rational long
> term investment and that holding through bull and bear markets is the only
> rational long term investment strategy. With this mentality prevalent
among
> the public, a bruising bear market would be required to reeducate them.
>
> Between the present delicate balance and the end of confidence in equities
> as an investment vehicle, we can anticipate extreme frustration for
> perennial bears and false hope for buy-and-hold bulls.
>
> A basing period of a month or so would allow for substantial accumulation
> which could support a powerful counter trend advance. This would be my
> preferred scenario over a V bottom and a weaker advance. Time will tell.
Stan,
I think the scenario that pulls all of your above mentioned factors
together is a V bottom forming
in the next week, a 3-6 month big bear market rally that fools the public
into complancency, then, another long grinding bear market to new lows hat
ends with
"MOTLEY FOOLS FILE CHAPTER 7"
Cheers,
Norman
>
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