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3-09-01 NASDAQ Close 2052.
Attached is an updated NASDAQ chart (and blowup of current price action)
through 03-09-01 similar to what was posted last week on 3-2-01. It "seems"
to be still tracking well (although once one feels they have found the key,
someone changes the preverbal lock?).
Even the "then speculated" possible sub-minor 4 rise, of minor 5, of
major wave 5, did in fact "come in" (small rise off the 3-01-01 low), so the
EW pattern continues to work, "so far" that is. In the process of
completing the sub-minor 4 rise it did NOT issue a "fake" buy signal (can
happen) on the 6/4 ma channels (or regression channels) so the chart remains
short. The pattern is "more complete now" however with the sub-minor 4 in,
so we may be close to a turn as it continues to search out the MOB
(Make-or-Break level) which "starts" down at 1918 (ugh). One would think
that 2000 is a magnet now, not unlike 5000 was and it will likely be broken,
at least intra-day.
So no signals yet (signal occurs with a close above the Blue or the
regression and the next day the high of the previous day is exceeded)
"Blue" "Red"
Date 6/4 ma channel 6/4 ma channel Regress.
3/02/01 2353 2258 2282
No Signal
3/05/01 2327 2227 2250
No Signal
3/06/01 2292 2195 2222
No Signal
3/07/01 2264 2164 2190
No Signal
3/08/01 2249 2148 2170
No Signal
3/09/01 2232 2143 2144
No Signal
3/12/01 2221 2137 2184
3/13/01 2211 2137 2161
3/14/01 2208 2137 2135
3/15/01 2198 2137 2101
With many of the large cap NASDAQ charts showing 5 waves complete, a
"tradable bottom" may be approaching and some nibbling warranted? Investors
who return, will likely only consider companies that have "real" earnings, a
"real" product, for that matter a "real" business and "real" management to
deliver it (not talking about some of the many still overpriced companies
that are selling "futures" here and whose market capitalization's are still
stratospheric).
Investors have been burned, some harshly, as this long drawn out Bear
continues to prowl. If and when they return, they will be smarter this time
and they will seek out the best quality stocks out there. Just as the
"mainstream value companies" has come into vogue, they will look for
companies that will not likely "go away" but will be there for many years to
come . . . . that is until they forget the lessons that recently learned
. . . as they always do :-) .This may be the end of this NASDAQ market
"bubble" (albeit temporary ala only wave 3 weekly) . . . . . history tells
us there will be more of them.
As so appropriately stated in the Livermore book, Reminiscences of a Stock
Operator, " (1923) if a man is both wise and lucky, he will not make the
same mistake twice. But he will make any one of the ten thousand brothers or
cousins of the original. The mistake family is so large that there is always
one of them around . . "
Good luck and good trading.
don ewers
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