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Jimmy,
As a follow-up on the NASDAQ charts I posted after the 3-01-01 close (and
before the open 3-02-01) I had promised to update the 6/4 ma channels and
regression points that would signal a buy signal . I speculated that we may
get a rise off the 3-1-01 lows that will need to be evaluated whether as to
whether it is just a subminor wave 4 rally of minor wave 5 down, of major
wave 5 down (meaning one more drop may happen) or whether we rally from
there and the MOB is never reached. Still no clues yet but here are the ma
/regression points for the next few days. Keep in mind a buy signal; would
be a close above either the Blue ma channel (or regression channel) then
the taking out of the high of that bar the following day. The red ma channel
then becomes the stop out point. If a sub-minor 4 as discussed above it
still could be a fake out and a lower low follows, so use any other tools
you have that would tell you which. I will take the signal and be stopped if
it is wrong and reenter on any subsequent signal.
I am also attaching updated charts through 03-06-01. So far everything
tracking as planned.
"Originally these were posted"
"Blue" "Red"
Date 6/4 ma channel 6/4 ma channel Regress. Signal
3/2/01 2353 2258 2282
none
3/5/01 2327 2227 2250
none
3/6/01 2292 2195 2222
none
3/7/01 2264 2164 2190
?
New ones are:
3/8/01 2249 2148 2170
3/9/01 2232 2143 2144
So no signals yet.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 02, 2001 6:00 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: NDX question/ Nasdaq answer
> Jimmy.
> I went back to an old NASDAQ composite chart that is tracking well, so I
am
> reposting it and have added some commentary in this leg down which might
> complete the move. The second chart is a blowup of the first to show the
> "final action area" that may unfold.
>
> First notice the major wave 4 retracement (blue circle July 2000) stopped
> exactly at a .618 retracement of major wave 2 (blue circle March 2000) to
> major wave 3 (blue circle May 2000). Also notice it had an ABC structure
> which I prefer to see) as sign we have something working here.
>
> From there we started out with what has turned out to be an "extended wave
> 5" down which the MOB off the previous major wave 3 (blue circle May 2000)
> caught well in price but not in time (black vertical bars on that MOB),
> another sign perhaps that this was going to be an extended wave 5 (a
> grinder).
>
> Minor wave 4 of major wave 5 (4:5) gave off a "fooler" buy signal buy
> (January 2001 "January effect") breaking the 6/4 ma channels, but "it was
> antimatter at the time" that is was possibly only a minor wave 4 of major
> wave 5 (since no "good" minor wave 4 had shown itself in this extended
> movement) not a breakout (there is always one more drop isn't there for us
> traders no matter what the commodity?).
>
> We are next potentially heading down to the next MOB off of the minor wave
3
> (early January 2001) of major 5 (3:5) which ends in the 1918 to 1822 area
> and the timing marks are 3/7/01 to 3/30/01. Since this has been such an
> extended move I have even thrown in the possibility we may get a subminor
> wave 4 rally of minor 5 of big Wave 5 (blue circle). The 3/1/01 low
possibly
> was the end of subminor 3 of minor 5 of major 5 (3:5:5)perhaps?
>
> Anything can happen from here and one needs to be careful about trying to
> get too finite, but this all "bears" watching since the count prior to
this
> has tracked well. We could head down there in a hurry (washout) or buying
> comes in and we don't quite get there. Selling "some" puts on ones you
don't
> really mind owning, for the "real" long haul might make some sense because
> they all do not bottom on a single day normally.
>
> The 6/4 ma channels might be a clue on the blow up chart and I am listing
> the levels below for as many days as the offset show and will update if
> things continue to track. Keep in mind you are looking for a close above
the
> blue upper ma channel, then the take out of the high of that bar. At that
> point the red ma channel becomes the stop out point. You also have the
> option if the signal occurs to wait hopefully for a retracement which
would
> narrow your stop to the red 6/4 ma channel line. Or using the upper
> regression channel as the signal if there is a close above it and a take
of
> the high of that bar the following day, a bit more "aggressive" approach.
> Lastly remember they never make it easy, so as mentioned above this could
be
> the last "fooler" a subminor 4 of minor wave 5 of major 5. If stopped out
> don't forget to take the "next signal" also as long as this MOB area
appears
> to be holding. I will take both since there is no way of telling.
>
> Date Blue 6/4 ma Channel Red 6/4 ma channel Regression
> channel
> 3/2/01 2353 2258
> 2282
> 3/5/01 2327 2227
> 2250
> 3/6/01 2292 2195
> 2222
> 3/7/01 2264 2164
> 2190
>
> We could get a very tradable rally out of here, and as always with EW the
> question becomes is this 5 wave sequence the end or just the end of big
wave
> 3 on the weekly and after a rally, (if it comes) there is another leg down
> or "shoe" to drop so to speak (maybe into August as some have suggested),
> assuming the economy does not recover or the perception of one at least,
or
> a double bottom?
>
> I hope this helps someone, good luck and good trading,
> don ewers
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jimmy" <jsnowden@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 11:13 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: NDX question
>
>
> > Recent posts didn't see much upside to the rally. What I see on the NDX
> > chart leads me to think we have a better chance of a nice tradable
upside
> > move than the continuation of the decline.
> >
> > Do any of the Elliott Wave technicians see this or is another
significant
> > down move pretty much needed?
> >
> >
> > Jimmy
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