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Dear Bob and all
I think your market analysis is correct. The one sentiment indicator I have
viewed for a long time is the one by Investor's Intelligence of the views of
market advisors. The advisors are near 12 year highs while the Naz has hit
lows. This is a major contradiction. Usually the behavior is bullishness
increases as the indicies rise. Now we have the advisors getting bullish with
the decline. The anecdotal evidence I note is that the people I know are
buying the dips. This suggests serious declines are ahead. The wash out has
not yet occurred.
The possible flaw in my analysis: I can not understand how the Advance Decline
lines in NYSE and Naz can be so strong and new lows be so few. Under usual
circumstances these indicators would be making me intermediate to long term
bullish.
Stuart
BobR wrote:
> The only way investor/consumer confidence could return to the heights that
> it was in the late stages of this bull market is if there were a new variety
> of tulip bulb in high demand. Or, a new large class of investor to be taken
> to the cleaners. Neither seems very likely to occur in the near future. It
> was a party of excesses. This is a situation in which the CNBC crew might
> as well take a vacation and quit pushing on the dead bull. He is dead meat
> except for a few last gasps of air. There is no way the next few years
> could create new millionares at the dotcom pace. The economic spinoffs of
> that era generated the confidence, the government surpluses, the optimism of
> economic utopia, and now we are back to the old slow grind. The last thing
> Greenspan wants to do is get things fired up too high too fast, thus the
> engine runs at idle, and then cruise, and then it outruns the highway
> patrol, and then it blows a piston ring and its back to the garage for a
> rebuild. We are now in that bear stage when the concern is how slow will it
> get. That's bear talk. The car is stuttering and blue exhaust is coming out
> the tailpipe from that blown ring. The Naz is just not going back to its
> old highs unless it is by devious means and if so it just won't stay there
> longer than it takes to record it on the charts and then the current bear
> will seem tame compared to the aftermath of the next one when no one waits
> for even a 1/3 retracement to get out. If this thing runs up on hype and
> promotion you can bet its gonna come down even faster. The current Nasdaq
> situation reminds me of the time I was sitting in a room of greyhaired
> balding gold bugs who took an analyst's advise years before and bought gold
> and mining shares when Au was 800 an ounce. Their questions were, when will
> it get back there so they can sell. The dotcoms are the golds of a few
> decades ago and we know what kind of bear mkt they have been in. Same thing
> can happen to once cherished stocks, has happened to companies with no
> growth or companies with debt outstripping revenue. Nope, just don't
> believe we are going back to the climate of a few years ago. Its a time for
> basing, regrouping, restoration of energy, licking of wounds in preparation
> for the delivery of the next hybrid tulip bulbs.
>
> bobr
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "RealTraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 4:55 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: Long Term Nasdaq
>
> > Had my laughing off my chair! These hacks are on CNBC all day long and
> they
> > just don't give up rolling out the optimistic brown stuff. Just wait until
> > we get the next bear market rally in March ...they will be loading the
> brown
> > stuff on tractor trailers big time. Rarely do these hacks get the
> > comeuppance they deserve as those who keep hanging in lose their
> collective
> > shirts.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 1:24 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: Long Term Nasdaq
> >
> >
> > > The other thing is
> > > that as the gurus keep dropping the estimated earnings per share, they
> > will get
> > > low enough that the companies will start to beat them.
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
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