|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Jimmy.
I went back to an old NASDAQ composite chart that is tracking well, so I am
reposting it and have added some commentary in this leg down which might
complete the move. The second chart is a blowup of the first to show the
"final action area" that may unfold.
First notice the major wave 4 retracement (blue circle July 2000) stopped
exactly at a .618 retracement of major wave 2 (blue circle March 2000) to
major wave 3 (blue circle May 2000). Also notice it had an ABC structure
which I prefer to see) as sign we have something working here.
>From there we started out with what has turned out to be an "extended wave
5" down which the MOB off the previous major wave 3 (blue circle May 2000)
caught well in price but not in time (black vertical bars on that MOB),
another sign perhaps that this was going to be an extended wave 5 (a
grinder).
Minor wave 4 of major wave 5 (4:5) gave off a "fooler" buy signal buy
(January 2001 "January effect") breaking the 6/4 ma channels, but "it was
antimatter at the time" that is was possibly only a minor wave 4 of major
wave 5 (since no "good" minor wave 4 had shown itself in this extended
movement) not a breakout (there is always one more drop isn't there for us
traders no matter what the commodity?).
We are next potentially heading down to the next MOB off of the minor wave 3
(early January 2001) of major 5 (3:5) which ends in the 1918 to 1822 area
and the timing marks are 3/7/01 to 3/30/01. Since this has been such an
extended move I have even thrown in the possibility we may get a subminor
wave 4 rally of minor 5 of big Wave 5 (blue circle). The 3/1/01 low possibly
was the end of subminor 3 of minor 5 of major 5 (3:5:5)perhaps?
Anything can happen from here and one needs to be careful about trying to
get too finite, but this all "bears" watching since the count prior to this
has tracked well. We could head down there in a hurry (washout) or buying
comes in and we don't quite get there. Selling "some" puts on ones you don't
really mind owning, for the "real" long haul might make some sense because
they all do not bottom on a single day normally.
The 6/4 ma channels might be a clue on the blow up chart and I am listing
the levels below for as many days as the offset show and will update if
things continue to track. Keep in mind you are looking for a close above the
blue upper ma channel, then the take out of the high of that bar. At that
point the red ma channel becomes the stop out point. You also have the
option if the signal occurs to wait hopefully for a retracement which would
narrow your stop to the red 6/4 ma channel line. Or using the upper
regression channel as the signal if there is a close above it and a take of
the high of that bar the following day, a bit more "aggressive" approach.
Lastly remember they never make it easy, so as mentioned above this could be
the last "fooler" a subminor 4 of minor wave 5 of major 5. If stopped out
don't forget to take the "next signal" also as long as this MOB area appears
to be holding. I will take both since there is no way of telling.
Date Blue 6/4 ma Channel Red 6/4 ma channel Regression
channel
3/2/01 2353 2258
2282
3/5/01 2327 2227
2250
3/6/01 2292 2195
2222
3/7/01 2264 2164
2190
We could get a very tradable rally out of here, and as always with EW the
question becomes is this 5 wave sequence the end or just the end of big wave
3 on the weekly and after a rally, (if it comes) there is another leg down
or "shoe" to drop so to speak (maybe into August as some have suggested),
assuming the economy does not recover or the perception of one at least, or
a double bottom?
I hope this helps someone, good luck and good trading,
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy" <jsnowden@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 11:13 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: NDX question
> Recent posts didn't see much upside to the rally. What I see on the NDX
> chart leads me to think we have a better chance of a nice tradable upside
> move than the continuation of the decline.
>
> Do any of the Elliott Wave technicians see this or is another significant
> down move pretty much needed?
>
>
> Jimmy
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Attachment:
Description: "NASDAQday030101MOBblowup.gif"
Attachment:
Description: "NASDAQday030101MOB.gif"
|