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Michael,
Ala finding wave 2's, there is a tool called XTL (Expert Trend
Locator) that attempts to get a trader in "early on a wave 3". I
admittedly have not used it very much, because extreme patience is needed to
wait for them, and if you miss it, the ideal spot to enter the trade may have
been missed (but there are always retracements I guess). I turned it on and you
will notice the bars turned red early in this down move (blue in up moves). You
exit the trade using the regression channels (not shown) or the 6/4 ma channels
(two gray lines) and re-enter after wave 4 on what they call a continuation XTL
trade. There is a search function that will scan all charts in all time frames
to find them automatically each day IF you run the search, discipline,
discipline, discipline . . .it all comes down to that?
don ewers
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Michael
Ferguson
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 12:06
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fibonnaci
Good post. I confuse myself with the wave counts
lots of times. One thing I see is that it is dangerous to sell if I see a
clear pattern of 5 down of any degree. Also, 3 down. these are bear traps.
These patterns set up in every time frame. The thing that I find confusing is
that a 2 of one degree can be a 4 of another degree.
Coincidentally I don't do well with deeply nested
math expressions either. I suspect that folks who are great at one are great
at the other also, there is contextual similarity.
I keep wishing that DTN could broadcast a
flag for every 2, and we could just fade 'em all. Sorting out the price cycles
in the time frame we trade goes a long ways to reducing whipsaws, and gives
most favorable trade status.
Any expert advice on spotting 2s, or better, 1s,
tactically in real time?
Michael
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001
11:48
Subject: Re: [RT] Fibonnaci
Me too at times, Jimmy.
EW is just a broad general roadmap that can be followed, that's
all. I t tells you what might be around the corner and using very specific
techniques namely a 5/35 oscillator (and a 5/17 and 10/70) to tell you
whether a count change is eminent. It attempts to keep you out of trouble
and on the right side of the trade. Money management, discipline and
trade size will however really dictate the success of any trader, as we all
know.
To answer your question, I have no idea at this point but can detail
some possibilities. I do think this is an important trading point
potentially, however.
The way I see it there are several possibilities (not predicting here
justlooking at the possibilities)First (a bit bearish) the 5
wave sequence to the low is really a larger Wave1 (with a 5 wave
sequence) and the ABC correction is a larger Wave 2.Meaning we have
started large Wave 3 down (minor 1:3 = minor wave 1 of bigWave 3) and
may get a pullback (minor wave 2:3) that will not take out thewave C
top.Second (bullish) the 5 wave sequence down is complete and Wave A
is reallyWave 1 and Wave B is really Wave 2 and Wave C is really minor
wave 1:3, andthe pullback to the trendline is minor wave 2:3 and we are
headed up fromhere in which case the wave C high will be exceeded. (It
is also possiblewave C will relabel as wave 1 still making this pullback
wave 2?)Pick your poison? We will have to let the charts and AG
(Alan) tell us thedirection. Bonds might be a clue in the short term, if
they continue to move dramatically higher a recession with some teeth in it
and most likely a weaker market. It is possible however that both stocks and
bonds move in the same direction as opposed to opposite at this point in the
economic cycle, as I have mentioned before, so that may not help either?
This will be interesting going forward for sure!don ewers
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Jimmy
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001
11:13 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fibonnaci
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>So what is next per EWT? Do we now have a wave 3
down or is it 1 up or will a B down follow? I'm lost in
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>the waves as usual.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Jimmy
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Friday, February 09, 2001
9:09 PMTo: Real TradersSubject: [RT]
FibonnaciFor those of you that use fibonnaci
extensions (and possibly EW, as I do),an excellent example that it
should be "considered" in any trading strategy.Two hits in my
book.The attached ABC consolidation off a major December low,
was a perfect 1.0times Wave A = Wave C (added to the depth of
Wave B) so far, top was taggedalmost to the tic . . . then the
l"apparent" low on 2-9-01 today ( a .618retracement level off the
low to the recent high) . . . this works allot bythe way . .
.don ewersTo unsubscribe from this group, send
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