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Mike,
A few q's about the foll probability thing:
a/ Bell curve/ ln distro based on or decided by what? Historical IV?
Statistical HV? How does the trade probability adjust for a change in
the shape of the curve (eg from tall to flat, or vice versa). How
does the trade itself adjust once the probability changes?
b/ How does the trade look? I mean, where on the curve does the trade
start out? Median? Tails?
c/ Any examples? Historical are fins, in case you want to preserve
the privacy of the current trades.
Thanks much!
Gitanshu
<snip>
> (2) a probability of profit greater than 50%,
>
> ad 2: greater than 50% probability may not sound like much, but
remember
> this is the mathematical expectation based on the Bell-curve (or,
rather, a
> lognormal distribution). It doesn't take into account my
(hopefully) expert
> opinion on the market which, hopefully again, will raise the
probability of
> profit to an acceptable level.
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