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It's unusual to see so much agreement so there must
be a skunk in the pot somewhere ...
At the current time, a case can be made that the
rally into Mar00 was a w.3 and that the current structure is a corrective ABC
completing a w.4 which would lead to a w.5 rally. This, in fact, has been
AGet's preferred count on the weekly chart. I have several problems with this
however, which is why I have elected to turn off AGet's counts on the weekly
chart. While the completed (to-date) ABC is nice and neat, the acceleration of
the decline from 01Sep00 and the strong underbalance of corrective time for w.4?
to rally time for w.3? lead me to believe that the correction is not
complete. At this juncture, given the considerations of price, pattern, and
time; it is probable that the structure from 01Sep00 is not complete and that
any rally here will turn out to be minor w.4 of w.3 with more to come on the
downside.
At the same time, my NASDAQ breadth models are
very bullish and my interest rate filter has turned bullish for the first time
in nearly two years. Add to that the now bullish daily price pattern which
includes a higher low and a higher high and one can be hopeful for a nice rally.
The first indication may come within a day or two as the rally from the low has
completed a small ABC pattern which would turn nicely impulsive if the this leg
of the rally can expand to 162%.
Given the major trend, the prudent course will be
to assume that the bear remains in control unless proof is offered to the
contrary. I would also note that once price moved down through the AGet MOB, it
became resistance and a move back through it would be bullish.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
rosow@xxxxxxx
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 16, 2001 11:00
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] NAZ
Neal,
Attached is a Weekly NASDAQ chart with my current E-wave
count. The only thing I'm skeptical about is that Wave 3 may not be
completed and where I have marked Wave 3 could be Wave 3:3. It's exactly
the 261.8% extension of Wave 1 which is quite normal for a 3. Whether it's
a completed ABC correction or a completed Wave 3 or a completed Wave 3:3
all roads point to the North for now. More clues will be had if this thing
can reach the 2900-3000 area. A close below 2335 and better yet below the
current low @ 2251 will negate all of the above.
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Attachment:
Description: "NQCompWeekly.gif"
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