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A book called "The Psychology of Technical Analysis" by Plummer provides a
good discussion of the propaganda war wagged by bulls and bears which we are
witnessing below. Plummer notes that bulls and bears argue their cases
until, at turning points, the majority of one side or the other has to say
"I give up, I was wrong" and a new trend begins.
Plummer also tries to tie mass psychology to the Fibonacci sequence and
Elliot Wave. Though it is not perfect, Plummer's book provides the best
theoretical justifcation for the effectiveness of Fibonacci and Elliot Wave
that I have seen. The book is worth a read if you haven't seen it.
Dan
>From: "James Taylor" <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: [RT] Re: The Reason for Nasdaq's Temporary Bounce
>Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2001 07:35:55 -0800
>
>I wouldn't go so far as to say a bull market is forming, far from it.
>
>The lemmings that got their lunch eaten by this last decline are wiped-out,
>and it will take a hell of a long time for the next batch to amass enough
>money
>to form another bull market.
>
>We are at best, in a bear market up leg. I wouldn't get to excited about
>it, unless you
>are a bear and are waiting to pounce on the next inflection point.
>
>JT
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Carl Vanhaesendonck" <carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Tuesday, January 16, 2001 2:48 AM
>Subject: [RT] Re: The Reason for Nasdaq's Temporary Bounce
>
>
> > Just one comment, I made the following observation re Nasdaq and
> > Volume:
> > The last months were characterized by an inverted volume behavior
> > (increase in volume when prices decreased, and decrease in volume
> > when prices rised. From the 1st trading day this year, this has
> > changed: the volume increased increased and decreased in synch with
> > price, which would suggest a bull market is emerging.
> >
> > With most indicators, like MACD, there has been not one, not 2, but a
> > triple bullish divergence, which is quite rare and also could
> > indicate the down-up trend reversal has already started.
> >
> > We will see...
> >
> > Carl
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, DH <catapult@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > For me the evidence is building that we have a significant bottom
> > at least
> > > > as good as fall 1999.
> > >
> > > Further evidence, David Tice was a holiday guest host on CNBC today
> > and
> > > was answering questions from little old ladies in investment clubs
> > about
> > > how to short stocks. :-)
> > >
> > > --
> > > Dennis
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
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