|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
For me the evidence is building that we have a significant bottom at least as
good as fall 1999.
1. The news is close to horrible. Companies are failing to meet expectations
and down grades are all over the place. Recession is predicted. And what are
stocks doing to this news. They are yawning. Most important they are not
falling apart as they did some months back. We had bad news on Intel and
Hewlett Packard last week. The price almost did not go down. (I bought
them.) If we are going into recession there is no logical way that cyclicals
like Alcoa Caterpiller DuPont General Motors International Paper & 3M are
not falling a part, unless the bad news is already discounted i.e. the weak
sellers have already sold and the strong buyers are holding tight.
2. The breadth is strong NYSE (Nasdaq a/d is not an indicator). The a/d line
is actually rising. New lows are diminishing and new highs are expanding.
That here should be new highs after the Nasdaq has imploded seems close to
impossible. But it is there in front of our eyes. There is no prescident
short term for a market falling a part with strong breadth. The breadth is
being confirmed by the Value line and the Russell 2000.
3. I realize conventional sentiment indicators are not giving major signals.
It bothers me a great deal that the Investors Intelligence bears have not risen
to extreems. But the anecdotal evidence in my point one above suggests the
negative sentiment. Ira Tunick adds below the end of 150 funds. The inflow of
new money to stock funds is down to a trickle. The VIX is at an extreem, TRIN
has risen some.
4. The FED is not hostile and is drifting to friendly.
I suspect the DOW saw its intermediate bottom a few weeks ago and is off to a
10 to 20% rise.
Stuart, NYC
Ira Tunik wrote:
> You forget that the rotation is not over. the supposed quality stocks are
> the last to go down in a bear market. the funds keep getting rid of their
> garbage and have to invest in stocks, so they buy the Dow. One other thing
> to watch is the number of Mutual Funds that are going out of business. It
> is my understanding that about 150 have closed their doors to date. Maybe
> they were taken over, but they are not there anymore. Ira.
>
> STUART AUSLANDER wrote:
>
> > I dont doubt your negative analysis on the Naz. The key fact to me is
> > the amazing internal strength building in the DOW. I read at least 15
> > DOW stocks in uptrends. This includes cyclicals which if we are going
> > into recession should be plunging.
> > Stuart
> >
> > James Taylor wrote:
> >
> > > The reason that the Nasdaq market has gone up the last three days is
> > > due to technicals, surely not fundamentals, as the market has bounced
> > > off of a trendline going back to 1995. How far can this pup
> > > potentially bounce before it resumes its rightful descent to earth ?
> > > It is likely that the Nasdaq will plunge again to retest the
> > > trendline. If the trendline holds, which I would bet it will, given
> > > the fact that Easy Al Greenspan will likely cut rates by another 1/4
> > > point at the end of the month, and spew more hot air on how he will be
> > > ready to cut again if the market heads lower (ps. Easy Al, the market
> > > is bigger than you are, you just don't know it yet.) Potential heights
> > > for the Nasdaq before the next leg down:3257 =50% retracement3494
> > > =62% retracement
> > >
> > >
> > > eGroups Sponsor
> > [Click Here!]
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
|