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BobKC
This is interesting that you make this type of post now. . what follows
are all your other ones starting from 9-7-00 . . . not a track record one
would want to brag about . . . your favorite T sure did good . . . (sorry
group but this is a long one, but follow the thread) . . . . .so not sure
where you are coming from . . . but you may be a contrary indicator at times
. . . that said glad you don't manage my money which admittedly has been in
cash way to early in July 1998 so missed allot but then I am willing to
admit that . . . point being you come off as knowing everything . . . well
guess not, at least from 9-7-00 . . . read and . . .
I expect flack from this post but really . . . .
don ewers
>>>>>>>>
9-7-00
"haha ... Funny. He's already broke if he's trading his own account but
then, he's making money from telling you how to trade *your* account so he
is never wrong. :)) It's also humorous to me that the bear zealots are
always ten times louder than the bull "hypers" yet they seem to somehow
believe they have the holy grail while bulls are the lemmings rushing to
the sea. It is also interesting that they view CNBC as a pit of bulls
while the bulls view it 180 degrees from that situation. I guess this
means that the news channel is, in fact, doing a good job of holding the
course somewhere in the middle of the road. We all know that Ron Insane(a)
has his whole fortune and the next ten years income short the market. :))
I continue to be overweighted long due to fundamentals which are far more
positive than negative and if one can only just forget the internet tulip
nonsense, there are hundreds to thousands of fantastic buys out there
still. I would caution being too positive on this market as we near
October however since so many technicians believe October will be a
horrible month, they will create a self fulfilling prophecy. Oh well, if
they have unlimited funds, the bears will have their day eventually. For
me, and I hope for you, I'll let the market tell me which side to
over-weight on a day to day, week to week, basis.
Good trading to everyone,
Bob-
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
9-7-00
I don't do charts other than to glance at them for near historical value.
I like some of the retailers, LOW for instance, as oversold on fundamentals
from slowing economy worries while in fact, that company could just as
easily benefit from less house buying and more house repairing. I like T
based on the markets inability to recognize the countries' larges cable
operator rather than *the* phone company and a belief that C Michael
Armstrong will be able to follow through on his transition of this firm
from a phone giant to a broadband delivery giant, plus, it's cheap as hell.
I'm long RRC, EPG and RIG in the energy sector and can only see the two
driller/support companies as continuing to benefit from the higher oil
prices while EPG may well explode when heating season arrives considering
the low reserve situation. In fact, there is a very interesting picture on
RRC which had hedged their reserves when oil was dirt cheap and hasn't
benefited as they should have from the rise in oil but they are beginning
to come off those hedges now and this $5 stock could be $25 in the next 2
years or so, as I see it.
Also in the broadband area and far off their highs due to their rapid
expansion of services are WCG and ZIPL. I'll wait out the results from
their expansions rather than live for higher earnings today. With the
exception of WCG and T, I am far into the black on all of these issues,
even with RRC which I bought at $3 and hold 12K. Last, I hold TXU as a
fear play and it's done nicely as well.
I could go on with this but without chart justification, most on this list
wouldn't be interested. I do thank you for your interest in what I am
doing and invite any relevant questions from our subscribers.
Bob
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
9-26-00
The market continues to see T as a phone company nearly to the exclusion of
the fact it is now the largest cable company in America. Cable = broadband
and broadband = services, services, services. This is a "what have you
done for me lately" market with a near zero patience level. I believe that
Armstrong will bring T back into the good graces of the market but it may
not happen until the cable profits begin seriously replacing the losses in
long distance revenues I'm adding to my position in T at these bargain
prices. I see the upside conservatively at +$30 and the downside risk to
-$8 or so. I like that risk/reward basis.
Good trading and investing,
Bob
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10-14-00
Let me see if I have this right. All I have to do is sell all my long
positions into a short lived rally coming and then short the world? I
can't lose.. I'm guaranteed to make a fortune and the risk is zero since
the DOW has seen its high, and that's a lock? I assume that the NAS has
also seen its high and we aren't likely to ever see 4,000 again either,
right? Oh, and INTC and NT and GE have seen their highs too and T is never
coming back and God is bringing down the Death Angel on every equity listed.
Not sure how long most of you have been in the markets but I remember when
there was a rumor .. a rumor that was so incredible that the guy who wrote
about the rumor was laughed off Wall Street. You see, the rumor this idiot
had the nerve to orate was that the DOW would break 1,000 ..
***1000!!!*** Bwahahahahaha .. what an idiot.
Since then, I've watched the naysayers and bone throwers howl and lose
money hand over fist and over and over and over and over. Why? Why did
this happen? Because the economy began to grow after the horror of the
Carter years with its 23% interest rates and nearly as high unemployment.
It is my sincere belief that most chartist predictions and other technical
folk's predictions come true due to self fulfilling prophecies. The
tech crowd so believes in their charts that they buy/sell into those
beliefs until the prophecy is a reality. So, do I follow the techie
forcasts? You bet I watch them.. I have to watch them because they are
telling me what they are going to do and if their technique is popular, a
whole lot of other chart-techies are going to be marching to the same place
at the same time.
Then there is also the "join the crowd" syndrome. It is *very* popular to
be a bear right now. If you're bearish, you're smart, if you're bullish,
you're an idiot. This is so prevelant that it's laughable.. the penguins
marching into the ocean on CNBC comes to mind. A ton of money is still
flowing into mutuals and people have more of it to put in than ever before
in history. Don't discount these individual investors either .. these
newbies. I did .. I tried to short internet stocks when they were running
them up to Oz and got my head handed to me. Then the funds tried the same
thing and got taken apart so they joined the madness and cleaned up.
(Yeah, I joined in too for a while)
All I am trying to say here, (I know it's long but I seldom post), is don't
let charts convince you of things that have no bearing on reality. Cash is
real .. investor sentiment is real.. a booming economy is real and people
who will not tolerate a 5% bond yield are real. Am I saying buy away here?
Nope. I'm just saying don't let all this techie talk convince you that
the fundamentals are invalid. I covered most of my shorts when INTC showed
strength into Thursday and I'm now mostly long although not heavily. We
tested the lows, we had high volume but the bears say we didn't capitulate.
I'll tell you one thing, when this thing clears the pads and the techies
begin covering, some real capitulation will take place. I've rarely seen
such shorting and put volume and when I have, it was just before they got
their lunch.
Be nimble my friends .. Oil service has only begun to profit from the price
of crude and there are a few other areas out there which will be safe
harbors until the covering frenzy begins. In the mean time, short
yesterday's strength and buy yesterday's weakness. It's not so hard to
make money in this market, it's just difficult to see through the smoke and
mirrors of the bulls and the lightening and wrath of God haze of the
bears. Or, you can just buy quality, short the crap and go fishing. :)))
Good trading and a dose of common sense to us all ..
Bob
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10-30-00
I have .. several times. I'm a pure fundamentalist with the exception
that I keep an eye on the technicians not for what they are predicting but
what they are going to do themselves due to those predictions.
Right now, I've just gone back into oil service, RIG .. finincials, C ..
and am beginning to cover the tech shorts which I think have made the bulk
of their move down. All fundamental reasons .. Big oil money is just now
filtering down to the drillers and suppliers .. Interest rate worries are
mostly over and the financials should improve into the last two months of
the year and a lot of good techs have been tossed with the bath water which
will bring money back to the sector soon. Nothing difficult or fancy ..
just what I hope will be common sense and basics. I'm in my 32nd year of
trading now and I've found what works for me. I hope everyone on this list
finds what works for you ..
Bob
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10-31-00
One way I know what the techs are doing is to simply follow the Elliot Wave
and Gann theorists. Another is to watch this list and others I'm on.
Another is to watch the equity trading chat rooms I'm a member of and I'm
talking about small, professional trading channels which only allow full
time, professional traders on them.
As to when to trade the three groups I mentioned? Oil majors always fall
off first. They do this because the market wants out before the peak is
reached so when you begin to see the majors falling into rising commodity
prices, it's time to get ready to buy the support issues. They too will
fall with the majors but their earnings will continue to grow and grow
since investment results are slower to come in that for the majors. It's
not complicated.
As to the financial area, these stocks have come off quite a lot and we are
now looking at a greater chance of a rate cut than a rate increase.
Considering Citigroup's vast diversification, they are the safest and best
of all the money center banks in my opinion. Also, financials typically do
well at year's end.
As to my third announced action, I now feel that the techs have been hit
hard enough that there will be far less babies thrown out with the bath
water and selective, high quality issues can be purchased with an
acceptable risk/reward factor. How do I determine this:? I look at the
best companies and watch how they've been hammered along with the zero
earnings, high risk issues. Not a complicated process and neither is
investing in general. The more simple it is, the better it is. But then,
I'm an old dude so what do I know? :))
I wish everyone on the list well ..
Bob
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
12-20-00
And doom spread throughout the land .. lower indicates lower and when lower
is reached it indicates lower than lower will be reached. Just remember
when it was so "cool" to be with the "in crowd" and wave the bear flag in
the midst of the high tech insanity? Well friends, the hordes are with the
flag wavers now and just as you knew the markets were never so easy as to
just buy and wait, they are not so easy as to just sell and wait, either.
When I see someone say there is only an 18% chance of something happening,
I cringe. Such belief in further moves in the same direction is a sure
sign of a near term reversal.
For me, I'm in RRC and cash ... I covered some shorts today and will do no
further shorting until we mount a rally sufficient to cause short term
memory loss of the recent toss of bath water, baby and nanny. I may miss
some opportunity but feel that the risk/reward in most short positions is
not sufficient until the froth is off the bear muzzle.
Bob
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
---- Original Message -----
From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, January 05, 2001 5:59 PM
Subject: [RT] NAS
>
> Well, that lasted about as long as could be expected. 95% of the nasdaq
> 100 were down today. 95 out of 100! My guess is 35% taking profits, 35%
> limiting losses and 30% reshorting. Why? No reason at all. An early
> morning rumor which was not true and an employment report which was not a
> minus for the market and well.. and nothing. Just the glass is half empty
> and leaking. It's a trader's dream.
>
> Oil and natural gas issues did very well today. I will continue to add on
> any weakness. EPG was up 2 9/16, RIG off 1/16 and RRC up 5/8. (I have
> 14,000 RRC).
>
> Hope everyone had a good day... as they used to say on Hill Street Blues..
> "Be careful out there"
>
> Bob
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
>
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