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At 08:58 PM 12/31/00 -0500, you wrote:
>I would take the statement from the last Fed meeting as being more important
>than Moskow's statement. High energy prices can and do cause recessions.
>Only time will tell. I am not saying it is a guarantee (a cut), but as of
>now, I'd be surprised if they did not ease 25 bps next month.
I'll be shocked if they don't ease by that and the reasons are many. I'm
not sure there won't be a .25 cut before the meeting and if there is, a
50/50 chance of another one at the meeting. Please remember that there is
a lot more to the decision than inflation issues.. right now, political
considerations are running high and the psychology of the markets which
brought about at least a few of the hikes, is now such to bring about a few
decreases. This Fed Chairman is the greatest friend a trader ever had. He
pushes em up and takes em down and pushes em up and ...... ... Anyone
who doesn't love this guy has taken up a one tracked mind set and gets
burned a lot.
Anyway, it's New Year's Eve .. Happy New Year to the list and a healthy,
profitable, 2001
Bob
>
>---
>Steven W. Poser, President
>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>http://www.poserglobal.com
>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Tel: 201-995-0845
>Fax: 201-995-0846
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: J W [mailto:inbox@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent: Sunday, December 31, 2000 5:25 PM
>To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: [RT] Re: OOPS - There goes the anticipate rate decrease
>
>
>I don't know about that. Energy prices were referred to as a sort of
>tax. As such, a tax applies differently to different groups while
>interest rates have a more general effect. OPEC is also making noise
>about keeping oil prices high regardless. And natural gas is high
>but I don't know if that is artificial and will decline as warmer
>weather approaches. In any case, I think high energy prices are good
>as they encourage further development of alternative sources.
>
>Seems to me that if this were to be considered an "official"
>statement, then the intent would be to say that a rate change is not
>guaranteed. The FED doesn't want to return to "irrational
>exuberance" <g>...
>
>JW
>
>--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, "Steven W. Poser \(psn\)"
><sposer@xxxx> wrote:
>> Note however that suggesting that energy prices are higher is also a
>> suggestion that such increases, if they are not following through to
>> inflation, which seems to be implied in the quote, is equivalent to
>further
>> rate increases. While this may take the odds of 50 basis points
>down from
>> more than 50% now to near zero, I doubt that it will take the odds
>below
>> 100% for 25 bps on Jan. 31.
>>
>> Steve Poser
>>
>> ---
>> Steven W. Poser, President
>> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>> http://www.poserglobal.com
>> swp@xxxx
>> Tel: 201-995-0845
>> Fax: 201-995-0846
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: J W [mailto:inbox@x...]
>> Sent: Sunday, December 31, 2000 3:27 AM
>> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: [RT] OOPS - There goes the anticipate rate decrease
>>
>>
>> Saturday December 30, 2:41 pm Eastern Time
>>
>> Chicago Fed's Moskow sees no recession - paper
>>
>> CHICAGO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth is slowing, but the
>> economy is not heading toward a recession, the president of the
>> Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said in a newspaper interview this
>> weekend, reiterating a view he has previously expressed.
>>
>> Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow declined to say whether the Fed
>> will cut interest rates, the Chicago Sun-Times said in its Sunday
>> editions.
>>
>> The Fed's interest-rate setting body, the Federal Open Market
>> Committee, warned on Dec. 19 that the economy was slowing so fast
>> that there was a risk of a sharp downturn, a signal the central bank
>> was preparing to cut rates soon. Moskow will be a voting member on
>> the FOMC in 2001.
>>
>> ``I can tell you that we will be monitoring very carefully all the
>> various indicators (of economic performance) ... and gathering a
>host
>> of anecdotal information as well,'' Moskow told the Sun-Times. ``And
>> we'll be prepared to do what's best for the American people.''
>>
>> Moskow noted that the housing market has stayed ``at a very high
>> level,'' while businesses can still borrow and spend money, despite
>> higher interest rates. Also, despite layoffs announced by many
>> companies in recent months, those workers can still be absorbed into
>> other jobs, he said.
>>
>> ``We may see a certain number of layoffs that get a lot of
>> publicity,'' Moskow said. ``But if the economy is still expanding
>and
>> total jobs (created) are still going up, say 100,000 to 200,000 a
>> month, then those people are being absorbed into the economy and
>> other jobs.''
>>
>> Moskow said the Fed is carefully watching rising energy prices. ``In
>> essence, it's like a tax increase,'' he said. ``It hurts businesses
>> as well, increases their costs. It's one of the elements of the risk
>> that we see toward weaker economic growth going forward.''
>>
>> Moskow said earlier this month that he did not see a significant
>risk
>> of recession, though there has been slowing in the economy.
>>
>> A Chicago Fed spokesperson could not be reached to comment on the
>Sun-
>> Times article.
>>
>>
>>
>>
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