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Bob,
Yep, Only 18% chance of it happening, when I observe something in this range
then I have to be very wary.
Since "it" can turn real bad, real fast if your mindset is over on the 82%
side.
More information...
If there is a gap up in the S&P futures, the chance of a higher high
increases to roughly 33%. Still not great odds of it happening but better
than 18%. A higher high is 1304.10, not all that far away if the smart
bears want to cash out.
A gap down has almost a 100% chance of making a lower low. This is a good
set of odds, and tempers some of the fears about the 18% chance of a higher
high.
Lastly, of the 11 times this kind of day occured, most of the days were
doji's. Only one in 11 was the start of a huge down move.
I agree with your point about why bother trading until the New Year. It
always gets thin and treacherous between now and the end of the year. And
both shorts and longs I believe have to pay taxes on their positions at the
end of the year, so that always makes it interesting.
Regards.
Don
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Margin calls and bottoms
> And doom spread throughout the land .. lower indicates lower and when
lower
> is reached it indicates lower than lower will be reached. Just remember
> when it was so "cool" to be with the "in crowd" and wave the bear flag in
> the midst of the high tech insanity? Well friends, the hordes are with
the
> flag wavers now and just as you knew the markets were never so easy as to
> just buy and wait, they are not so easy as to just sell and wait, either.
> When I see someone say there is only an 18% chance of something happening,
> I cringe. Such belief in further moves in the same direction is a sure
> sign of a near term reversal.
>
> For me, I'm in RRC and cash ... I covered some shorts today and will do
no
> further shorting until we mount a rally sufficient to cause short term
> memory loss of the recent toss of bath water, baby and nanny. I may miss
> some opportunity but feel that the risk/reward in most short positions is
> not sufficient until the froth is off the bear muzzle.
>
> Bob
>
>
> At 07:12 PM 12/20/00 -0500, you wrote:
> >Hi Ben,
> >
> >In my statistical work there is only a 18% chance of a higher high
tomorrow
> >in the NYSE/S&P Futures and 72% chance of a Lower Low. So I would be
> >inclined to see further down side.
> >
> >Most of the days in the past like today resulted in a doji at the close
of
> >Thursday with the dead cat bounce, Ben is talking about, starting on
Friday.
> >Only one out of 11 showed a reverse dead cat bounce, more like the piano
> >crashing through a couple of floors and landing on the concrete sidewalk
> >kind of trend.
> >
> >
> >Don Thompson
> >
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: <proffittak@xxxxxxx>
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 5:38 PM
> >Subject: Re: [RT] Margin calls and bottoms
> >
> >
> >> In a message dated 12/20/00 4:27:49 PM Eastern Standard Time,
ist@xxxxxx
> >> writes:
> >>
> >> << Do we get a violent Christmas rally for a couple of days?
> >> Does fear overcome greed and those speculators who loved the 90s look
> >> elsewhere to place their funds? Is the tax selling over? Will fund
> >> redemptions afford greater pressure on the markets? Will the influx
of
> >> 401K and other retirement funds give us the ever famous January
effect?
> >> Will those giant brokerage firms start laying off people and cutting
> >> bonuses? Just look at the charts, the complete story will unfold
> >> there. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Ira.
> >> >>
> >> hello
> >>
> >> my work suggests a dead cat bounce to an intra day hi of 2750 by
Fri
> >> or Monday
> >> then
> >> by next Fri 12/28-12/29 intra day low will be UNDER 2000 NASDAQ
> >> BE CAREFUL
> >> happy healthy and wealthy year
> >> Ben
> >>
> >>
> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
>
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