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Bob -
One thing that worries me and what may also be driving us lower is that
there are still funds with lots of capital gains in there from purchases
made a couple of years ago. As people sell, they must take those gains. With
distributions going on, lots of selling going on to avoid the distributions.
I know I have done that and am waiting one more day for another fund that
will distribute. Until you cannot sell to avoid this tax consequence, we can
go lower. That is s-t of course, and I suspect we have a good January and
maybe even post-Christmas, but not jumping up and down to buy yet. I hate to
catch a falling piano!
Steve
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
-----Original Message-----
From: Steven W. Poser (psn) [mailto:sposer@xxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 8:40 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Margin calls and bottoms
I agree with you here Bob. Though I see lower s-t, being short now is only
for day traders. Long-term still looks ugly to me however. That said, if we
wash out big time further in next couple of days, I suspect that we should
find any cash left over and buy. Wash out requires at least low-1200s and
maybe worse for S&P and 2115 or worse for NAZ. Ya know, I asked CNBC this
summer if they would do another NASDAQ 2000 special when we got there. They
never answered me. Wonder why? I was willing to guest host the show. Maybe
that is why they haven't had me back!
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
-----Original Message-----
From: BobsKC [mailto:bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 8:11 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] Margin calls and bottoms
And doom spread throughout the land .. lower indicates lower and when lower
is reached it indicates lower than lower will be reached. Just remember
when it was so "cool" to be with the "in crowd" and wave the bear flag in
the midst of the high tech insanity? Well friends, the hordes are with the
flag wavers now and just as you knew the markets were never so easy as to
just buy and wait, they are not so easy as to just sell and wait, either.
When I see someone say there is only an 18% chance of something happening,
I cringe. Such belief in further moves in the same direction is a sure
sign of a near term reversal.
For me, I'm in RRC and cash ... I covered some shorts today and will do no
further shorting until we mount a rally sufficient to cause short term
memory loss of the recent toss of bath water, baby and nanny. I may miss
some opportunity but feel that the risk/reward in most short positions is
not sufficient until the froth is off the bear muzzle.
Bob
At 07:12 PM 12/20/00 -0500, you wrote:
>Hi Ben,
>
>In my statistical work there is only a 18% chance of a higher high tomorrow
>in the NYSE/S&P Futures and 72% chance of a Lower Low. So I would be
>inclined to see further down side.
>
>Most of the days in the past like today resulted in a doji at the close of
>Thursday with the dead cat bounce, Ben is talking about, starting on
Friday.
>Only one out of 11 showed a reverse dead cat bounce, more like the piano
>crashing through a couple of floors and landing on the concrete sidewalk
>kind of trend.
>
>
>Don Thompson
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: <proffittak@xxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 5:38 PM
>Subject: Re: [RT] Margin calls and bottoms
>
>
>> In a message dated 12/20/00 4:27:49 PM Eastern Standard Time, ist@xxxxxx
>> writes:
>>
>> << Do we get a violent Christmas rally for a couple of days?
>> Does fear overcome greed and those speculators who loved the 90s look
>> elsewhere to place their funds? Is the tax selling over? Will fund
>> redemptions afford greater pressure on the markets? Will the influx of
>> 401K and other retirement funds give us the ever famous January effect?
>> Will those giant brokerage firms start laying off people and cutting
>> bonuses? Just look at the charts, the complete story will unfold
>> there. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Ira.
>> >>
>> hello
>>
>> my work suggests a dead cat bounce to an intra day hi of 2750 by Fri
>> or Monday
>> then
>> by next Fri 12/28-12/29 intra day low will be UNDER 2000 NASDAQ
>> BE CAREFUL
>> happy healthy and wealthy year
>> Ben
>>
>>
>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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