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JW
-----Original Message-----
From: James Smith [mailto:JSmith@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, December 11, 2000 9:57 PM
Subject: The next President will rise to meet the needs of the
country, but so will interest rates
Many might agree that stocks will retest the base and possibly hit
new lows if Gore is declared the winner, but some might argue with
the notion that a Bush win would also bring a retest of the Lows.
Why should stocks go down if Bush wins? If Bush wins, he will be
under the gun to not only stick to his bold tax cuts (to please the
far right), but also make good on his flimsy campaign rhetoric of
being a "compassionate conservative."
Ironically, he may be forced to actually become a "compassionate
conservative" or the liberal media will have him for lunch every day
of the week. It has already been pointed out many times in the
debates that Texas has the worst record of all the states on
education and the environment. "George W." cannot afford to allow
his first actions as President to give the lie to his so
called "compassionate conservatism". If he allows his actions to
contradict his rhetoric of being a "comassionate conservative", the
media will immediately remind the nation that the son is not so
different from the father who broke his 'no more taxes" pledge. It
is also not true Americans will allow Bush to continue with the same
nonchalant attitude towards the education and the environment that
worked so well for him in Texas.
If elected, Bush would also be well advised to make some high profile
gestures toward bipartisanship legislation his first priority, to
help placate the Democrats who are going to be very angry no matter
what.
What does it all mean?
It means George W. Bush will be spending a lot more money than most
people have anticipated (thru both tax cuts & social programs).
Interest rates will move higher and stocks will retest the base and
struggle to move higher...at least for a while.
In effect, the challenge for a Bush Presidency will be to break his
promises to the far right (perhaps dilute the tax cuts or delay them,
pushing them farther into the future) and at the same time be
effective enough on the environment, education, and health care so
that Hillary will have nothing to run on in 2004.
Can you imagine a Republican President solving our Health Care Crisis
and acting acting responsibly on the environment?
Could you imagine in 1992 a Demoractic President attacking the
national debt and bringing in a Surplus?
If Bush suceeds on the social imperatives of the next 4 years, it
would be the equivalent of a democratic president passing Nafta,
balancing the budget, and passing welfare reform.
The trick is to know which promises to keep and which ones to walk
away from.
I'm betting on higher interest rates.
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