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This sounds familiar. I remember when the banks had huge bad debts from South
America and local problems also. Technically, if a bank showed its financial
statement to get a car loan, it wouldn't qualify. They had negative net
worth. The banks stocks just kept rallying. I couldn't understand why this
kept happening. It took 3 years before it came to light and the bank stocks
finally took their deep fall. As I have said before. It is not fact, but
perception, that creates movement in the markets. Ira
James Taylor wrote:
> Is that right ?
> I've been short tech trash heavy thru this whole decline, and having the
> best year ever.
>
> My trading style is to have Fundementals and Technicals make sense.
> Now the fundamentals make NO sense.
> You are buying government debt in a declining economy, a government debt
> that is near $6 Trillion.
> Falling US tax revs, sky high and climbing inflation.
>
> debt amassed by both
> individuals and corporations stands at excessive levels. Corporate
> interest payments in the third quarter of this year stood at $182
> billion, a record. As a percentage of corporate profits 18.7
> percent.
>
> Rampant Inflation example (this is the published numbers, imagine the real
> numbers):
> Hourly compensation costs among
> nonfarm businesses rose at a 6.4 percent annual rate in the third
> quarter, the fastest pace since 1992. And the rise in labor costs
> has been accompanied by an increase in core consumer prices,
> growing at an annual rate of 2.7 percent so far this year, up from
> 1.9 percent in 1999.
>
> With corporate debt rates over 10%, it makes absolutely no sense paying for
> 5.5% long bond rates.
>
> The bottom should fall out on the US bond market before this debacle that
> Greenspan made is thru.
>
> One day you will wake up and the trap door will have opened on the bonds.
> IMHO
>
> JT
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "SCOTT WINSKI, APS FINANCIAL CORPOR" <winski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, December 07, 2000 6:30 AM
> Subject: Fwd: Re: [RT] BONDS
>
> >
> > Been tracking you for along time now...would have lost my ....
> > ---- Original Msg from: James Taylor <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx> At: 12/ 7
> 3:34
> >
> > Fundamentals do not make sense for such low long bond rates.
> > Upside is very limited here, IMHO.
> >
> > Inflation is rampant.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "SCOTT WINSKI, APS FINANCIAL CORPOR" <winski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, December 06, 2000 11:58 AM
> > Subject: Fwd: [RT] BONDS
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > Close enough,,,,,traded through 61 fibo retracement ie 5.55 on long
> > bond........
> > > ---- Original Msg from: Scott Winski <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx> At: 12/
> 4
> > 12:40
> > >
> > > It looks as though the long bond is trying to get to 5.5.....I would
> > expect
> > > that the Dec 19 fed meeting will result in a neutral bias with rates
> being
> > > unchanged which would drive us down to that yield level.
> > > That would take the contract over 103....any thoughts?
> > >
> >
> > >
> > >
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > >
> >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
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> >
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