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Ira's INDU chart contains a wealth of information.
The chart shows the accelerated upturned that began in 1995:
The lower trend line has been moving upward at about 1000 points a year
since '95 (approx 4 pts per trading day.)
The lower line remains in force. It continues to contain every cyclical low
in the industrials.
The upper trend line drawn across cyclical tops presents an expanding
triangle.
Only when the lower line is violated and the subsequent rally fails to
bring prices back into the triangle will the structure be complete.
Unlike the NASDAQ, the industrials have not experienced a blowoff phase.
The next anticipated test of this structure is the end of the 4 year cycle
that began in late 1998.
The chart shows several 'obvious' topping formations:
The 1997 'top' turned out to be consolidation and accumulation from
premature bears rather than distribution.
The 1998 'top' looked ominous. The short lived double top at the end of '98
looked that the last gasp of this great Bull Market, but turned out to be
the beginning of the next leg up.
The extensive 1999-2000 'top' looks even more ominous. However, it too may
turn out to be a massive consolidation/accumulation phase leading to
yet another extension of the expanding triangle.
Let he market tell us when the structure is complete:
The attachment uses information inherent is Ira's chart to extend the
industrials to the end of the current 4 year cycle within the confines of
the present structure.
It projects the anticipated next test of the structure.
This chart represents a possible scenario, NOT a prediction.
-Stan
-----Original Message-----
From: Ira Tunik [mailto:ist@xxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, December 05, 2000 9:54 AM
To: realtraders
Subject: [RT] Dow
Could we have a split market between the Dow and the Nasdaq? If the
Dow breaks out above this area we could be looking at targets of 11,600,
13,300 and 14,000 all +/- a little, or is this just another bear market
rally? Is tax selling over with? Looking at stocks like XRX I would
have to say no. If you are a trader you can't afford to be bearish or
bullish. You always have to look at what it will take to move price in
the other direction. What in your system will tell you that price will
move up instead of down and vise versa. When do you drop to lower time
frames for a better picture and when do you move to higher time frames
to get a better overall look. The Nasdaq has come within striking range
of my downside target. Is a new bull market in the offing? I can't
tell you, only the evaluation of the charts and price will tell that.
The point that I am trying to make is don't become myopic. Always look
in both directions. It is amazing how the view changes. I have attached
a weekly chart of the Indu. Does this look bearish to you? Just
another view. Have a profitable week. Ira.
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