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OOPS!! forgot the attachment.
A pair of alternating 20 year cycle produce a 40 year cycle. Since Slawelp
is going back 40 years to 1960, it appears to me he is referencing this 40
year cycle.
The attachment shows the correlation between 1940-60 and 1980-00.
The apparent alternation of 20 year cycles suggests that investors who have
learned to buy and hold over the past 20 years may be disappointed over the
next 20.
-Stan
-----Original Message-----
From: Carl Vanhaesendonck [mailto:carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, November 30, 2000 5:13 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: re:60 yr cycle & sentiment + Pattern correlation
I must be very dense also but...do not see any pattern correlation
between the 1940-41 chart and actual DJ pattern...
This said, I can agree that actual DJIA chart, plotted in weekly
bars, shows some vague H&S pattern since early 1999. As it shows a
wonderful and dangerous Diamond Pattern, which has since then failed
on both sides. Which let us with a longe and large (9600-11900)
trading range of nearly 2 years. As we know, trading range appearing
after a long run up (or down) is rather a continuation pattern.
I would therefore rather expect DJIA to break to the upside, with a
target above 14000 pts.
And if you stick with the H&S pattern, H&S failures (price do not
cross the neck line but do the opposite and cross the last "Shoulder"
pivot) also generate strong move.
Exciting !
Carl
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, SLAWEKP@xxxx wrote:
> You right this chart represents end of 1940 & Jan 1941,
> basically You subtract 60 yrs from today's date.
> this chart Told me to be out of the market by end of march 2000,
> buy on may 16th 2000, so far showed good hi/low rotation
> & Feb 8th (+/- 4days) 2001 as a buying point after severe decline
from Jan
> 10th 2001 (presidential election gridlock???) Its confirmed by
other methods
> as very important date
>
> slawek
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Attachment:
Description: "DJIAOVLY.gif"
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