|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I do not add many new short positions on big down days in the major indexes.
I run my screens nightly and add new positions on days when the market is up
big,
like Nasdaq up over 100, and Dow up over 150.
On days where the indexes are getting creamed, I selectively lighten up
positions that
have dropped over 10% that day and have already dropped a lot during the leg
down,
and stocks near solid support levels.
Just being diversified and having reasonable stops in place, not chasing
stocks that have already dropped a lot,
one will be fine shorting this market. Just look at the advance/decline
line and you will see that more stocks are
falling than rising. We still have yet to get real capitulation and a wash
out of weak longs via margin call pressure.
That day is fast approaching.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dom Perrino" <domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, December 02, 2000 7:51 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Time to stand aside???
> In all candor I have to admit that in over 30 years in the market this the
> first time( except maybe 1973 -74) where my indicators including some
> proprietery ones are not given me a clear signal ,. My most trusthworthy
one
> gave a major sell signal about 18 months ago. I have to look up the exact
> date. At that time I was warning everyone including my accounting clients.
> My alarm was clear and certain. It would make you sound only slightly
> bearish in your present tone.So what happened after that is history. The
> market embarked on its last tremendous leg up until early this
year.However
> the indicator I referred to never had been more than 6-8 weeks late.
Example
> It gave a sell signal in August of 1987( I think it was the 23) and the
> october crash came 2 months latter. After the crash, however, the
indicator
> fell back in line, that is to say that prices were now in line with this
> indicator. This time however, this indicator is still not anywhere in line
> with the prices.Speaking about this situation with other technicians that
I
> personally know and you hear things like we have a new economy, the
computer
> has increased effiency , interest rates are low, the fed has a great
handle
> on soft landings, unemployment has never been this low etc.etc.etc.So the
> dilema is do we stick with something that has a tremendous track record
for
> calling big moves , and if so we could make a ton of money by shorting and
> buying puts.But than again what if the market makes one more substantial
> move up before the big crash..Do you see my point. Every move has to start
> with one step if it progresses to step two you stay in. It seems more
likely
> you will catch the big move down without a full commitment at one time. So
> far this year shorting on rallies has worked fine. But if we have one
last
> substantial move up before the big down move, you will wind up with large
> drawdowns, or being stopped out.
> Dom
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "James Taylor" <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, December 02, 2000 8:59 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Time to stand aside???
>
>
> > Dom,
> >
> > I think the bears are pissed-off and ready to take this market down
> another
> > notch.
> > This bear is committed to put all I have short this market, in a prudent
> and
> > diversified manner.
> >
> > I want to see Nasdaq 1000 so bad I can taste it. I want to see the
> > foreclosures mushroom,
> > and the unemployment lines of internet punks swell. We need to cleanse
> the
> > economy of the poisons
> > that have built up over the last decade.
> >
> > and if all goes well, CNBC will be forced off of the air, when the
> general
> > public is sick and tired of gambling in the stock market, and hearing
> these
> > vicious empty suits talk trash.
> >
> >
> > before buying stocks, CAVEAT EMPTOR
> >
> > look down before you look up.
> >
> > the day of reckoning is coming. Japan, Russia, S Korea, Indonesia saw
it.
> > Now it is the US' turn.
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Dom Perrino" <domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, December 02, 2000 5:30 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Time to stand aside???
> >
> >
> > > I invite and am receptive and respectfull of other opinions . That's
the
> > > purpose of this board . We are professionals. Everyone should be
> > respectfull
> > > of other opinions regardless as to whether one agrees or does not
agree
> > Your
> > > original answer for the record was and I quote you. "Seems that you
only
> > > want to hear about buying, so buy your brains out . As for me I will
> watch
> > > the channels for evidence". Now you have added some more information
> from
> > > your original post to this current post and go on to say that you
stand
> by
> > > your original answer. If everyone here had this ATTITUDE would this
> board
> > be
> > > any good to anyone.
> > > Dom
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Prosper " <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Saturday, December 02, 2000 5:14 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] Re: Time to stand aside???
> > >
> > >
> > > > If you cut the end off of a blanket and sew it back onto the other
> > > > end will you have a better blanket? Buy, sell as you like, whether
it
> > > > is a time to buy or sell something depends on the trader his system
> > > > etc. From your post it sounded like you wanted only to hear buy
> > > > recomendations from some pros. That precludes sell or stand aside
> > > > recomendations. I know nothing about your other posts. I stand by my
> > > > answer, if it is still in a downward channel don't put on trades
> > > > going the other way unless maybe you are spreading or fishing with
> > > > options and have a very thick wallet.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, "Dom Perrino" <domenick@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Prosper, Since you may not have seen some of my previous posts,
> > > > just to let
> > > > > you know that I am not just interested in buying, I am interested
> > > > in making
> > > > > money.I let the market do the talking. ,and I try to listen to
what
> > > > the
> > > > > market is saying. On 9/1/00 I posted a sell signal on this board
> > > > and most
> > > > > people know that I am still VERY BEARISH on the market. However,
I
> > > > do trade
> > > > > rallies within that overall bear market. If you short at the
> > > > beginning of a
> > > > > bear market and cover your shorts at the end of the bear
> > > > > market that ,in my opinion is long term position trading.It is the
> > > > same as
> > > > > the person who buys and buys more on weakness throughout a bull
> > > > market.The
> > > > > more meaningfull moves you can get, the more profits you should
> > > > have. If we
> > > > > follow the philosophy of those who have suggested to sell the
> > > > rallies within
> > > > > a bear market you are doing the same thing as those people who buy
> > > > all sell
> > > > > offs in bull markets. At least two things are happening in both
> > > > > situations:1)They are averaging their position and 2) They are
> > > > putting MORE
> > > > > capital in the markets on each reaction.in the opposite direction,
> > > > whether
> > > > > bull or bear.In addition they then have to determine when a bull
> > > > market or
> > > > > bear market has terminated.Making this determination is much more
> > > > difficult
> > > > > ,in my opinion, than reading the market on a shorter term
> > > > basis.Commissions
> > > > > these days being low what is incorrect about covering your shorts
> > > > prior to a
> > > > > rally and then reshorting .This way you can have your short
> > > > positions and
> > > > > your cash also.
> > > > > Dom
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Prosper " <brente@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, November 30, 2000 2:57 PM
> > > > > Subject: [RT] Re: Time to buy????????????
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Seems that you want to only hear about buying, so buy your
brains
> > > > out.
> > > > > > As for me I will watch the channels for evidence.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Prosper
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Aside technical indicators,fundamental
> > > > > > indicators,ew,astrology ,gann, fibo.etc., and putting personal
> > > > > > experience in the forefront.Let's get some input based soley on
> > > > > > experience since I think that this election fiasco is throwing a
> > > > > > monkey wrench in most indicators.
> > > > > > > Is this a buying opportunity that some time from now we will
> > > > look
> > > > > > upon as a coulda, woulda,shouda ??? In my own past experience
> > > > almost
> > > > > > every time things looked as dismal as they do now it turned out
> > > > to be
> > > > > > a buying opportunity.
> > > > > > > Let's hear from some heavyweights (and others).As a
> > > > technician, I
> > > > > > know it is hard to put technicals aside. Let's try ,we will be
> > > > able
> > > > > > to hear opinions without having to justify it with an indicator.
> > > > > > > Dom
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
>
-------------------------- eGroups Sponsor -------------------------~-~>
eGroups eLerts
It's Easy. It's Fun. Best of All, it's Free!
http://click.egroups.com/1/9698/0/_/152424/_/975822299/
---------------------------------------------------------------------_->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
|