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In all candor I have to admit that in over 30 years in the market this the
first time( except maybe 1973 -74) where my indicators including some
proprietery ones are not given me a clear signal ,. My most trusthworthy one
gave a major sell signal about 18 months ago. I have to look up the exact
date. At that time I was warning everyone including my accounting clients.
My alarm was clear and certain. It would make you sound only slightly
bearish in your present tone.So what happened after that is history. The
market embarked on its last tremendous leg up until early this year.However
the indicator I referred to never had been more than 6-8 weeks late. Example
It gave a sell signal in August of 1987( I think it was the 23) and the
october crash came 2 months latter. After the crash, however, the indicator
fell back in line, that is to say that prices were now in line with this
indicator. This time however, this indicator is still not anywhere in line
with the prices.Speaking about this situation with other technicians that I
personally know and you hear things like we have a new economy, the computer
has increased effiency , interest rates are low, the fed has a great handle
on soft landings, unemployment has never been this low etc.etc.etc.So the
dilema is do we stick with something that has a tremendous track record for
calling big moves , and if so we could make a ton of money by shorting and
buying puts.But than again what if the market makes one more substantial
move up before the big crash..Do you see my point. Every move has to start
with one step if it progresses to step two you stay in. It seems more likely
you will catch the big move down without a full commitment at one time. So
far this year shorting on rallies has worked fine. But if we have one last
substantial move up before the big down move, you will wind up with large
drawdowns, or being stopped out.
Dom
----- Original Message -----
From: "James Taylor" <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, December 02, 2000 8:59 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Time to stand aside???
> Dom,
>
> I think the bears are pissed-off and ready to take this market down
another
> notch.
> This bear is committed to put all I have short this market, in a prudent
and
> diversified manner.
>
> I want to see Nasdaq 1000 so bad I can taste it. I want to see the
> foreclosures mushroom,
> and the unemployment lines of internet punks swell. We need to cleanse
the
> economy of the poisons
> that have built up over the last decade.
>
> and if all goes well, CNBC will be forced off of the air, when the
general
> public is sick and tired of gambling in the stock market, and hearing
these
> vicious empty suits talk trash.
>
>
> before buying stocks, CAVEAT EMPTOR
>
> look down before you look up.
>
> the day of reckoning is coming. Japan, Russia, S Korea, Indonesia saw it.
> Now it is the US' turn.
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dom Perrino" <domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, December 02, 2000 5:30 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Time to stand aside???
>
>
> > I invite and am receptive and respectfull of other opinions . That's the
> > purpose of this board . We are professionals. Everyone should be
> respectfull
> > of other opinions regardless as to whether one agrees or does not agree
> Your
> > original answer for the record was and I quote you. "Seems that you only
> > want to hear about buying, so buy your brains out . As for me I will
watch
> > the channels for evidence". Now you have added some more information
from
> > your original post to this current post and go on to say that you stand
by
> > your original answer. If everyone here had this ATTITUDE would this
board
> be
> > any good to anyone.
> > Dom
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Prosper " <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, December 02, 2000 5:14 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Re: Time to stand aside???
> >
> >
> > > If you cut the end off of a blanket and sew it back onto the other
> > > end will you have a better blanket? Buy, sell as you like, whether it
> > > is a time to buy or sell something depends on the trader his system
> > > etc. From your post it sounded like you wanted only to hear buy
> > > recomendations from some pros. That precludes sell or stand aside
> > > recomendations. I know nothing about your other posts. I stand by my
> > > answer, if it is still in a downward channel don't put on trades
> > > going the other way unless maybe you are spreading or fishing with
> > > options and have a very thick wallet.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, "Dom Perrino" <domenick@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Prosper, Since you may not have seen some of my previous posts,
> > > just to let
> > > > you know that I am not just interested in buying, I am interested
> > > in making
> > > > money.I let the market do the talking. ,and I try to listen to what
> > > the
> > > > market is saying. On 9/1/00 I posted a sell signal on this board
> > > and most
> > > > people know that I am still VERY BEARISH on the market. However, I
> > > do trade
> > > > rallies within that overall bear market. If you short at the
> > > beginning of a
> > > > bear market and cover your shorts at the end of the bear
> > > > market that ,in my opinion is long term position trading.It is the
> > > same as
> > > > the person who buys and buys more on weakness throughout a bull
> > > market.The
> > > > more meaningfull moves you can get, the more profits you should
> > > have. If we
> > > > follow the philosophy of those who have suggested to sell the
> > > rallies within
> > > > a bear market you are doing the same thing as those people who buy
> > > all sell
> > > > offs in bull markets. At least two things are happening in both
> > > > situations:1)They are averaging their position and 2) They are
> > > putting MORE
> > > > capital in the markets on each reaction.in the opposite direction,
> > > whether
> > > > bull or bear.In addition they then have to determine when a bull
> > > market or
> > > > bear market has terminated.Making this determination is much more
> > > difficult
> > > > ,in my opinion, than reading the market on a shorter term
> > > basis.Commissions
> > > > these days being low what is incorrect about covering your shorts
> > > prior to a
> > > > rally and then reshorting .This way you can have your short
> > > positions and
> > > > your cash also.
> > > > Dom
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Prosper " <brente@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Thursday, November 30, 2000 2:57 PM
> > > > Subject: [RT] Re: Time to buy????????????
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Seems that you want to only hear about buying, so buy your brains
> > > out.
> > > > > As for me I will watch the channels for evidence.
> > > > >
> > > > > Prosper
> > > > >
> > > > > > Aside technical indicators,fundamental
> > > > > indicators,ew,astrology ,gann, fibo.etc., and putting personal
> > > > > experience in the forefront.Let's get some input based soley on
> > > > > experience since I think that this election fiasco is throwing a
> > > > > monkey wrench in most indicators.
> > > > > > Is this a buying opportunity that some time from now we will
> > > look
> > > > > upon as a coulda, woulda,shouda ??? In my own past experience
> > > almost
> > > > > every time things looked as dismal as they do now it turned out
> > > to be
> > > > > a buying opportunity.
> > > > > > Let's hear from some heavyweights (and others).As a
> > > technician, I
> > > > > know it is hard to put technicals aside. Let's try ,we will be
> > > able
> > > > > to hear opinions without having to justify it with an indicator.
> > > > > > Dom
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
>
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