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Boom and bust . . . . the way things change, the more they stay the same.
No one really knows . . . but we will all have to admit things had gone to
the extreme. Many may have ridden the wave and got out at the top (congrats)
and others parked their board too early (I was one at least temporarily at
least when you look at prices recently), others are sleepless (maybe "I can
just get even"). . . but valuations on "some stocks" are still at extremes
if the economy is slowing . .
First PE contraction (expectations softening), now earning contraction
(reality or a slowing economy) . . . both can be destructive to equity
portfolios.
Signs we all saw, but maybe did want to admit it,
-Instant millionaires daily (new offerings)
-More risk being "out of the market" than "in the market" mentality
-High percentage of boomers retiring in the 2000-2010 and counting heavily
on a up stock market, but they will be able to sell out first?
-Accounting irregularities to prop stock prices
-Buyouts to reward executives (forgetting those who will lose their job to
justify it)
-PE's that rival all bubble's (Japan)
-Mentality that "it is different this time"
-Extended hour trading for stocks (Vs going to the kid's game)
-Popularity of CNBC hosts
-The Fed can orchestrate everything (certainly did in 1998 to bail out their
LTC cronies?)
-Technology is no longer cyclical . . .duh
-The new paradigm (sp?) . . . whatever
-CNBC building a new headquarters
. . . . the more things change the more things stay the same . .
Come on guys, we were in a bubble we all knew it . . . IT WAS WHERE WILL IT
TOP, admitting it is another thing . . . . as is trading it which is what
we are, and how we make money.
Was this a crash (down 50% in 3 months) who cares (a matter of time to some,
ala a crash means "a day" in some peoples mind), or a bear (and I am not
calling this a bear, . . .yet) which is a relentless, lower lows and lower
highs, that grinds you out (for those who have not witnessed one), but then
also do have "in your face rallies too" (election result rally or failure
the rally and then failure). Things have changed, we need to recognize that,
and how more importantly do we make money off of it?
Will the Fed step in, maybe, but that will not solve the valuation problem
that still exists in many stocks, stick to Ira's criteria, makes sense right
now, and don't over leverage.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "H&M Feld" <ariel@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, November 30, 2000 3:38 PM
Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [RT] Re: Time to buy????????????
> Remember those brokerage commercials on TV from a few years
back.........when
> everyone in the commercial suddenly stopped what they were
doing..........and
> listened for what was being said...............its kinda the same way when
Ira
> posts........................Harry
>
>
> "SCOTT WINSKI, APS FINANCIAL CORPOR" wrote:
>
> > Probably one of the most intelligent posts I have seen this week.
> > ---- Original Msg from: Ira Tunik <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx> At: 11/30
15:33
> >
> > There are several things that are needed before a rally can start. When
> > it does start the trick is to have the right stocks. Even today over
> > 100 stocks hit new highs. I am a technician by choice. I believe that
> > all is shown on the charts. I am not stupid though. I don't believe
> > that every promising chart pattern will land me in Eden. I just ran a
> > filter of all stocks traded and found over 70 that have PE ratios less
> > the 10, Return on Assets greater then 25% and year upon year growth for
> > the past 4 years of greater the 20%. They all had excellent profit
> > pictures also. Not only do you need good numbers, you need investor,
> > and fund interest, along with brokerage and guru backing or they won't
> > go anywhere. You also need sufficient volume to allow entry and exit.
> > So when searching for stocks that will participate, look at the books as
> >
> > well as the charts. The charts will tell you when to get in and when to
> > get out. The books will tell you which ones to look at. Good trading.
> > Ira.
> >
> > Dom Perrino wrote:
> >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Aside technical indicators,fundamental
> > > indicators,ew,astrology ,gann, fibo.etc., and putting
> > > personal experience in the forefront.Let's get some input
> > > based soley on experience since I think that this election
> > > fiasco is throwing a monkey wrench in most indicators.Is
> >
> > > this a buying opportunity that some time from now we will
> > > look upon as a coulda, woulda,shouda ??? In my own past
> > > experience almost every time things looked as dismal as they
> > > do now it turned out to be a buying opportunity.Let's hear
> > > from some heavyweights (and others).As a technician, I know
> > > it is hard to put technicals aside. Let's try ,we will be
> > > able to hear opinions without having to justify it with an
> > > indicator.Dom
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> >
> >
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