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Earl
Would you mind reprising your super-long-term chart of interest rates vs S&P
dividends? Bet that sucker looks really extreme 'bout now.
Kent
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, November 10, 2000 7:58 PM
Subject: [RT] Scent of the bear
As I looked over the broken impulse structures in the major indexes
Thursday evening, it seemed to me that some pretty significant technical
damage had been done to the equity markets. The damage was only further
exacerbated by Friday's action. I believe that all the election talk is
little more than a bit of fog which does not account for the seriousness
and persistance of this decline. This is a strong country with a long
history of orderly transfers of power and consensus government. While
the current goings on may prompt feelings ranging from bemusement to
disgust, the fact is that whoever wins the election will not be in a
position to pursue radical change. The markets know this so we must look
elsewhere for the reasons, especially considering the seasonalities
which are favorable to equities. Among the condidates are slowing
economy, slowing earnings, slowing volume, increasing cost pressures,
and short term interest rates e.g. 13 week TBill rates, which have
barely budged from their highs. As I work on my charts this weekend, I
will be paying more attention to the scent of the bear. I do not expect
to find him standing on his hind legs roaring but rather drifting
sleepily as he surveys the terrain after awakening from his long
hibernation.
Earl
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