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I day and swing trade equities, using a simple system of 3 charts (daily, 30 min,
5 min) and just simple trends and patterns and 13 and 39 period MAs
For NTAP, I observe that it has not broken the daily trend from either 4/17 or
5/24, although it has just made a double top, in addition to a lower low. Both
the 13 and 39 MAs provide resistance around 124.
On 30 min, NTAP found nice support around 105 (well, just under at the lowest
point, but bounce off 105 several times), now riding on top of the 13 MA, and
could be buyable on a break above the 39MA.
On 5 min, the chart would look nice on a move above yesterday's peak of 111.
To trade short, look for failure of move above 111, or else wait for failure at
124 (or wherever the MAs are by then).
Looks like a better buy to me, if it gets above 111, playable to 124.
JNJ looks more like a range then a wedge on the daily. On the 30min, it clearly
found support around 89 1/4, and I would look for further support at the 39MA
(now 90 1/2).
On the 5 min chart, I am intrigued by the frequent 1 point moves. It appears to
be in an upswing, and has converged with the 13 and 39 MAs.
To me the odds are with a swing back above 95, although I would not play it,
since the range is weakening, and the risk reward analysis doesn't look good
enough. On the short side, I would play a break below 89 support.
What am I trading? BVSN, which looks like it has broken the downtrend (although
it faces another test at 40). On the 30min, the 13MA has provided a solid floor
all week, for swing traders, while the steady swings on Friday from the high
34s/low 35s to the high 35s/low 36s were very tradable (I caught 3 of 4 with 300
shares each, pulling out at least 3/4 each time.)
Did I 'predict' any of this move? No. I just happened to be watching at the right
time. Does it always work? Of course not. For example, I bought DCLK Friday when
it looked like it would round up on the 30min around midday. I sold it late in
the day for a 1/4 loss when it lost the 13MA. It has gapped up the last three
days, so I will watch in pre-trading.
Lastly, if someone wants a longer term trade, I noticed ADI has again reached the
bottom of its range on the daily, and I am looking for opportunities to trade the
upswing.
Regards
DanG
jon88keys@xxxxxxx wrote:
> In a message dated 11/4/00 10:56:15 AM Eastern Standard Time,
> harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> << I have gotten pretty good at trading short term swings in big stocks for
> two
> or three points but, I would like to get better at trading bigger picture
> patterns. A couple of patterns that seem to be developing are a desending
> triangle with JNJ and a double top with NTAP. Both have broken their trend
> line. Do these look as promising as I think or am I missing something? How
> would anybody trade these on the short side?
>
> Thanks, >>
>
> Lessee...
>
> Looking a daily charts...
>
> NTAP did break the channel, stochastics look oversold though, so I'm looking
> for a fib retracement to 121.40 (or in the vicinity) for a selling
> opportunity, maybe next week sometime.
>
> JNJ hasn't really broken out yet (morning star candle pattern even, so I'm
> expect at least a short term up move), so I just might buy on Monday for a
> few ticks intraday (I'd want to look at an hourly chart to find an entry if I
> was trading it for real), but by and large my inclination here is to just
> wait for the daily chart break, if I'm end-of-day trading. Certainly not a
> clear breakout yet.
>
> Just my $.02.
>
> Rgrds.
>
> Jonathan
>
>
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