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Bill,
Understand that my comment about multiple interpretations was somewhat
facetious, although I do believe strongly in keeping alternate
counts. I think most of us who use EWave would agree when we see an
impulse wave 3--"a wonder to behold" as Mr. Elliott said.
Interpretive difficulties are usually in the corrective phases or at the
beginning and end of waves. Once corrections or wave completions are
identified, wave theory calls for projections / retracements based on fib
ratios. Establishing a tradeplan and money management based on
these depends on your confidence in the count. Again, most of us
probably use other indicators to confirm the resupmtion or termination of
a move. Robert Miner at Dynamic Trading and Tom Joseph at Trading
Techniques (Advanced GET) have done a lot on this. (And I must see
what Mr. Poser's favorite Elliotician has to say!)
There is also the issue of wave degree -- a Minor wave C down may be part
of an Intermediate wave 4 down that is part of the 5 wave sequence of
Primay 3 Up. Sometimes this is useful; sometimes it makes my head spin.
Elliott developed his theory for the broad market using, I believe, daily
data. Shorter time frames and derivative instruments subject to
arbitrage make wave interpretation more difficult, something Steven Poser
alluded to last night. I believe some members of the list have
posted charts from Advanced GET intraday. Perhaps they could give
insight on intraday EWave. That said, some years ago when I
subscribed to Mr. Prechter's service I kept an hourly chart of the
DJIA. Wave counts and subsequent projections could be made at that
time frame. In fact, I credit that work for allowing me to dodge
the bullet in '87.
Ref being back to square one--if wave 4 overlaps wave 1, then it is not
an impulse wave but part of a corrective sequence such a Jeff
described. That's useful information in itself.
All old history on your time frame.
HTH,
Charles Marchand
At 10:56 AM 11/3/00 +0000, t-bondtrader wrote:
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