Sv: [RT] Gann Fan on the Bonds

["Stig O" <olausson@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Bill,
 
I can't give you any lesson, but like Don I can give you my 
thoughts and how I weigh the odds...
You have allready seen my monthly and weekly views, which all 
points to a very heavy overhead resistance on many different levels and 
allthough resistance are to be broken, i consider the odds to be for the Aug 
-Oct time to be the top of an ABCDE correction in the form of a large Wedge 
(which could be the reason it is difficult to fit an impulse  12345 wave 
count).
 
So I am including a daily chart which, in my view also point 
to a continious decline and a possible break of the large Wedge.
(it seems I am always looking for 
tops/bottoms.....)
 
1 the whole rise in the wedge has been with declining volume 
and open interest (bearish and confirming the Wedge scenario)
 
2 The way I have drawn the lower trend line is to have it 
touch as many point as possible in order to be valid. This trendline has been 
touched 5 times. But then look at point (E). It drops below the line, which I 
consider a sign of weaknes and more weaknes to come (decisive 
break?)
And if it was a failure, it would have been followed by a 
steep rise (possibly through  the resistance levels)
If you include that point (E) in the line, it will only be 
touched twice, not as valid, so I draw it the other way.
 
3 We have again numerous fib resitance levels (no the same as 
in the weekly and monthly charts), just above the top B. We need MORE energy to 
push through.
 
4. We have a pennat originating a B but the volume does not 
confirm the pattern, so it's not actually bullish in my view, besides it's not 
broken upside yet either.
ON THE OTHER HAND, we have an interesting fib spiral from May 
18 to Nov 1-2, which could cause a chage in trend. How far then that trend would 
go, if at all, we could perhaps look at if it's done. We have an inverted 
H&S on a weekly chart that could be used for that later...
We also have Clyde's disturbing Swing Machine, who never seems 
to agree with anything I say <g>.......HMMMMMMMM
stig
  
-----Oprindelig meddelelse-----Fra: 
Don Ewers <<A 
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Til: 
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx <<A 
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>Dato: 
2. november 2000 14:14Emne: Re: [RT] Gann Fan on the 
Bonds
Bill,
I would agree we are at an important juncture or better said yesterdays low 
could have been an important turning point. There are two possible scenarios I 
am working with (attempting to trade).
 
First the attached Advanced GET daily shows we have 5 waves in and a Type 2 
Sell signal bar was generated when we closed below the ma channels (6 offset by 
4 off the highs and the lows) on Tuesday. The subsequent break below the low of 
that bar on Wednesday creates the sell, so some GET players went short at 99-24 
right. The pattern could also represent a "double top" and the top was 
a turtle soup trade all of which puts one short from various points. (Also on 
the 60min GET chart attached the"gator" put one short at 100-03)
 
However the internal count of the wave 5 looks possibly incomplete to me 
(the minor 4 is barely visible) and the MOB projection (the colored horizontal 
lines) was never entered or hit, all of which leaves the possibility that this 
move down is just minor wave 4 of larger wave 5. It is also interesting to see 
that you had Gann resistance near the 99-17 lows on Wednesday. Dropping down to 
a 60min, this just could (?) be a large A-B-C move down (see my labeling in red) 
in a minor wave 4 of big wave 5. A perfect swing target was you guessed it, 
99-17.
 
Sooooo  is a position trading top in and we are headed lower or was 
this just a corrective minor wave 4 of big wave 5 up needed to complete the 
larger wave 5 pattern to 101-19 to 102+. Answer, I have no clue but will let the 
market answer that important question. I am lightly long early yesterday with 
stops of course playing the minor wave 4 scenario for now.
don ewers
 
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
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    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
    <A href="mailto:t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
    title=t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx>t-bondtrader 
    To: <A 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>RT 
    
    Sent: Thursday, November 02, 2000 5:44 
    AM
    Subject: [RT] Gann Fan on the 
    Bonds
    
    Brente has got me going on fiddling around with 
    a Gann Fan and in a totally amateur way I have added what look to me to be 
    four waves from the Contract Low.   While I am sure that much more 
    science and understanding of EW is required here, would anyone care to give 
    their opinions on where the market is at and where it is like to go from 
    here?
     
    I am sure that in a month or so we will be able 
    to look back and say it was all very obvious, but at this precise moment, it 
    seems to me, that we are at a very interesting juncture and I would much 
    appreciate anyone's foresight or take on this.   As you all know, 
    I day trade and have never been able to see where one goes on a position 
    trade - but this might be the opportunity to focus on what's what in the 
    predictive world.  If it was a five minute chart, I would be short from 
    the top to at least the bullish retracement line and (on that scale, of 
    course) easy come easy go about changing direction or continuing 
    south.  But with a position play I sure would need to know where my 
    stop was against what target and the r/r/r involved.
     
    Anyway, I'll be interested to see if anyone 
    responds.  I would genuinely like to get a lesson here, if I 
    could....
     
    Of course, the first thing is to hope that the 
    Gif file will come out....  please, someone, let me 
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